Weather with Bill Evans
National Weather Service New York NY
Friday Jan. 24, 2024
A cold front moves through today. High pressure then builds in
tonight into Saturday before moving offshore Saturday night. A
cold front moves east of the region Sunday night. A series of
cold fronts move across the region next week. Low pressure may
impact the region sometime in the mid to late week.
An upper level shortwave over the Great Lakes region moves east
today, deamplifying as it does so. At the surface, a cold front
approaches and moves through late in the day into the evening
hours. With upper level support weakening and not a lot of
moisture to work with, expect this front will move through dry
today.
Temperatures will continue to run well below normal, with highs
in the warmest areas (the coast and into the NYC metro area)
only reaching to about freezing.
The upper trough axis pushes east of the area tonight, allowing
for a more zonal flow to set up for Saturday and Saturday night
before the next upper level shortwave dives southeast from
southern Canada Saturday night and moves through the Northeast
on Sunday. High pressure pushes off the mid-Atlantic coast on
Saturday, allowing a surface cold front moves through late
Sunday into Sunday night.
Dry conditions continue tonight through Sunday as there
continues to be little moisture to work with and lack of phasing
between the northern and southern jet streams. A very
progressive pattern will limit the availability of any
moisture. However, a stray rain or snow shower cannot be ruled
out with the cold front Sunday, as a stronger southerly flow
might bring in enough moisture in some very isolated areas.
Lows tonight and highs Saturday continue to be well below
normal under renewed cold advection until about Saturday
morning. Overnight lows tonight will dip into the single digits
in the interior. With highs on Friday a couple of degrees warmer
than yesterday, do expect warmer overnight lows. Some isolated
areas may dip below zero in the interior. Highs on Saturday will
be similar to Friday, in the upper 20s to lower 30s across the
entire forecast area. Sunday will see much warmer and near
seasonable levels for temperatures thanks to return southerly
flow from the offshore high.
A series of upper level shortwaves and associated frontal boundaries
move across the region through the long term. The first will be
Sunday night into Monday, followed by a second Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Each of these systems should bring some cloud cover to
the area, however there is not much moisture to work with, so many
of these fronts will push across the area dry.
Forecast models then differ a bit on the potential for a more robust
upper level trough and associated surface low/cold front moving
across the area late Wednesday into Thursday. This next feature may
bring a round of precipitation and more notably, another shot of
arctic air to the region.
Overall, stuck somewhat close to the NBM guidance, however did
increase POPs for the Wednesday afternoon/Wednesday night period.
Will introduce some chance POPs, during the period with the
deterministic 00z forecast models showing the wave of low pressure
moving across or near the region. Felt that the NBM POPs were just
too low and could not be used.
Drier and colder conditions return to end the week.
High temperatures Monday are forecast to be in the middle and upper
30s. Tuesday appears to be the warmest day of the week with highs
ranging from the upper 30s to lower 40s. With cloud cover and precip
chances, Wednesdays highs only reach the 30s. Thursday and Friday,
temperatures remain below or right at the freezing mark.
A weak pressure gradient will lead to winds and seas below SCA
levels through Saturday. A steepening pressure gradient Saturday
night results in increasing SW winds and the next chance for SCA
wind gusts and seas on the ocean. SCA conditions should then
continue on the ocean waters through Sunday.
Small craft conditions are expected to continue for a large portion
of next week as a series of cold fronts move across the area.
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