WLNG Weather
Tuesday June 12, 2026
.KEY MESSAGES...
2) Hot and humid conditions continue through this evening with
3) Potential for more strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday late
4) Minor coastal flooding possible this weekend into early next
Today`s potential for strong to severe thunderstorms may
.KEY MESSAGE 2...
Temperatures and heat index values will remain muted in the
.KEY MESSAGE 3...
While it is too far out for specific details, there is at least
The evening high tide cycle looks to be the higher of the total
With both Long Island Sound and South Shore Bay locations as well
There is potential for brief Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday Rip Currents...
For today, a SW flow around 10kt and a 3ft 6s swell from the
The risk lowers to low on Saturday with a west wind under 10 kt and .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Additional strong to severe thunderstorms are possible once again late this afternoon and evening. 2) Hot and humid conditions continue through this evening with a Heat Advisory remaining in effect for much of the region. 3) Potential for more strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday late afternoon and evening. 4) Minor coastal flooding possible this weekend into early next week during evening high tides. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Today`s potential for strong to severe thunderstorms may largely be a repeat of yesterday`s storms as the atmosphere is expected to become unstable into the afternoon and evening given strong surface heating. The main difference will be a more potent upper level disturbance and a surface cold front approaching from the west that will provide a more consolidated forcing mechanism for storm development. However, the front looks to move into the area later than normal, generally in the evening and overnight hours. This may mean that storms may be fairly isolated in nature into the afternoon and may not be more scattered or widespread until evening. That being said, any strong to severe thunderstorms that do develop will have the primary threat of bringing damaging wind gusts. .KEY MESSAGE 2... An upper ridge will return today and allow for similar temperatures as yesterday. 850 mb temperatures will surge toward the 20 C mark, translating to surface temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s. Moisture across the region will remain elevated with surface dew points in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Together, this will allow for Heat Index Values to be in the mid 90s to lower 100s. The Heat Advisory remains valid for much of the area through 8 PM today. Temperatures and heat index values will remain muted in the lower to mid 80s for coastal SE CT and Eastern Long Island, and these areas will stay out of the Heat Advisory. .KEY MESSAGE 3... An upper level shortwave trough approaches on Sunday along with an associated cold front at the surface. Most of the day will be sunny and hot with an increasing southerly flow. At this time, afternoon temps in the upper 80s to lower 90s and dewpoints in the lower 60s do not raise a concern for heat hazards. While it is too far out for specific details, there is at least potential for strong to severe thunderstorms during the late afternoon and evening on Sunday. There is decent agreement among the global models with QPF output along the approaching cold front, along with a tongue of instability stretching into northeast NJ. The SPC has outlined NYC and north and west in a marginal risk for severe thunderstorms. .KEY MESSAGE 4... With a new moon phase coming up this weekend, astronomical tide levels will be higher. With increasing onshore flow this weekend, the forecast surge is expected to increase and total water levels could reach just beyond minor coastal flood benchmarks during times of high tide. The evening high tide cycle looks to be the higher of the total water level forecasts according to some surge forecast models. This minor coastal flooding could linger into early next week as well for those evening high tides. With both Long Island Sound and South Shore Bay locations as well as Montauk showing possible minor coastal flooding, coastal flood advisories could very well be needed in subsequent forecast updates. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A cold front approaches from the west today, eventually crossing through the area tonight. High pressure builds in from the west towards early Saturday. Mainly VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period. Exceptions will be east of NYC terminals, where fog is possible early this morning with IFR to MVFR potential as well as showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon into this evening. A brief reduction in visibility to MVFR or IFR will be possible along with the potential for brief strong wind gusts with some thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorms, winds initially light near 5 kts or less with variable direction for some locations. Winds eventually become more westerly today with more SW winds for locations along the shore. Wind speeds will be near 10-12 kt today with some gusts up to near 20 kt this afternoon into evening. Winds shift to NW this evening behind cold front. Wind speeds again will be near 10 kts. NW flow near 10 kt stays in the forecast through early Saturday. ...NY Metro (KEWR/KLGA/KJFK/KTEB) TAF Uncertainty... Amendments possible to refine timing of showers and thunderstorms, which could be 1 to 2 hours off from TAF. Gusts could develop 1 to 3 hours before stated in TAF for today. .OUTLOOK FOR 00Z SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY... Saturday: VFR. Sunday: Mainly VFR initially. Then, showers becoming more probable afternoon into night with MVFR or lower possible at times. Thunderstorms are possible as well. S-SW wind gusts near 20-25 kt afternoon into evening. Peak gusts to near 30 kt possible. Monday: Showers ending early with MVFR or lower possible. Otherwise, mainly VFR. Possible W-SW wind gusts 15-20 kt afternoon into early evening. Tuesday: Mainly VFR. Detailed information, including hourly TAF wind component forecasts, can be found at: https:/www.weather.gov/zny/n90 && .MARINE... Light flow of 5 to 15 kts is expected through Saturday and Small Craft Advisory headlines are not expected at this time. Winds will be southwesterly through this evening before shifting to the northwest behind a cold front. There is potential for brief Small Craft Advisory conditions Sunday into Sunday night with an increasing southerly flow ahead of a cold front. This will likely be real marginal and mainly for the ocean waters, with 25 kt gusts and 4-5 ft seas. Rip Currents... For today, a SW flow around 10kt and a 3ft 6s swell from the south will combine to bring a moderate risk of rip currents for southern Nassau and southern Suffolk. The risk for NYC beaches is low, with a bit of a weaker swell. It is marginal overall for all beaches, but RCMOS helped lean towards increasing the risk. The risk lowers to low on Saturday with a west wind under 10 kt and a lingering 2 ft southerly swell. |