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Weather with Bill Evans

Good Day On This Monday February 26, 2024 Low pressure passes well north of the area today. A warm front approaches on Tuesday and moves through Tuesday night into Wednesday. A cold front follows Wednesday night. Behind it, high pressure builds in through Friday. A trough or wave of low pressure then slowly approaches from the south over the weekend. Region remains on the southern edge of passing shortwave dragging a weak front with limited moisture toward the Tri- State. This presents potential for a bit of light precip this morning as it advances east. Latest CAMs have backed off on coverage, and this is supported by surface obs and soundings profiles indicating lots of low level dry air to work through. Trimmed back PoPs to slight chance (20%). Still, not out of the question a few sprinkles move through later this morning. With temperatures above freezing along the coast, any precip here would fall as light rain. Across the interior, temperatures are near the freezing mark (for now), and this presents the possibility of a light wintry mix. Best chances of seeing any precip are across interior. Will continue to monitor obs and hoist a SPS should one be needed. Temperatures at the surface and aloft climb above freezing by mid morning everywhere. Otherwise, weak front moves through during the afternoon with drying conditions in its wake. Temperatures will be mild for late February, climbing into the mid 50s across the NYC metro and the lower Hudson Valley, and around 50 elsewhere with marine influence. Into tonight, increasing moisture and weak winds may allow low stratus or fog to develop, but dry conditions are expected to persist. Upper flow aloft becomes zonal into Tuesday, anchored by an eastward extending subtropical PAC jet, and approaching series of shortwaves. At the surface, weak high pressure moves offshore early Tuesday, with a warm front approaching from the Mid Atlantic late Tuesday. Temperatures on Tuesday will be dependent on increasing high cloud cover and potential stratus. Onshore flow should keep highs in the lower to mid 50s for city/coast, but still up to 10 degrees above normal. Low pressure gains strength as is heads north and east through the Great Lakes Tuesday night into Wednesday. An attendant warm front begins to lift through toward daybreak Wednesday, advancing north through the day with a more favorable position of the parent low in the vicinity of the eastern Great Lakes and help with a strengthening low level jet. As the front approaches, potential for light rain to develop as early as late day Tuesday, becoming likely Tuesday night with increasing moisture and lift. Likely/categorical PoPs continue into Wednesday, though there is likely a lull during the afternoon Wednesday while in the warm sector of the passing warm front. In addition, Breezy conditions develop late Tuesday night at the coast, then spread to the rest of the area Wednesday. The mild air mass behind the warm front will allow surface temperatures to get into the 50s on Wednesday, and possibly the lower 60s west of the Hudson River. If partial clearing is able to occur, temperatures away from the marine influence could be 5 degrees warmer than current forecast. Strengthening low pressure over southeastern Canada heads north Wednesday night, sending a cold front through the area. This will also bring a strengthening low level jet into the region, which will bring a period of windy conditions Wednesday night. Southwest winds of 20 to 30 mph are possible, with gusts 35 to 45 kt possible until the front moves through later in the night, with winds diminishing thereafter as high pressure builds in. Forecast soundings show a low level inversion, but this may eventually get eroded away, allowing stronger gusts to mix down to the surface. But there is a very short period of time when the inversion is fully gone and peak winds mix down to the surface before winds start to diminish. Still looking at advisory level gusts mainly over eastern zones and coastal areas into Wednesday night. Likely/categorical PoPs continue for Wednesday night until front moves through. Although lift will be strong, particularly with the cold front, instability is very limited, so will continue to leave out thunder from the forecast. Dry behind the cold front on Thursday, but still with gusty winds as strong cold advection continues. High temperatures slightly below normal with cold air advection well underway. High pressure continues the dry weather for us on Friday with warmer temperatures and lighter winds. A trough extending northward towards us on Saturday and Sunday then brings slight chance PoPs through the period. High temperatures both days are expected to return to above normal. Marginal SCA conditions expected on the ocean waters today with seas around 5 ft and SW gusts toward 25 kt thru the afternoon. These conditions improve this evening into Tuesday morning as weak high pressure slides across the area. SCA conditions then return Tuesday afternoon on the ocean, and Tuesday evening on most other waters or night as a warm front lifts through and southerly flow strengthens. Gales possible on all waters Wednesday into Wednesday night, but more likely on the ocean and eastern LI Sound/Bays. A low level inversion will limit wind gusts for a while, but is forecast to erode Wednesday night. There is a brief period where an isolated gust to storm force is possible, especially on the eastern ocean zone Wednesday night. Flow veers NW behind a cold front late Wednesday night and gradually diminishes through the day Thursday with gales still possible at least in the morning. A high pressure center passes nearby on Friday with sub- advisory conditions. A general half inch to one inch of rainfall is expected Tuesday night through early Thursday, but no hydrologic impacts are anticipated.
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