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Weather with Bill Evans

image National Weather Service New York NY Tuesday April 22, 2025 A cold front slowly pushes across today. High pressure gradually builds tonight into Wednesday and remains in control through Thursday night. A frontal system will move across the area late Friday into Saturday. High pressure then builds in Sunday into Monday. Other than some clouds this morning along a cold front, expect more in the way of sunshine for the late morning and afternoon. It will be a fantastic spring day with above normal temperatures. The question for today`s forecast is how much to go above guidance in terms of temperatures? NWP global guidance has 5 kft temperatures hovering around 10 C with a W to WSW flow throughout the column. Steep lapse rates will lead to excellent mixing, especially from the sfc to 5-6 kft. A cold front moves into the area and sort of washes out to a degree. Therefore not expecting much if any wind direction shift. A W to WSW flow should be maintained with neutral advection. This should lead to warmer than normal temperatures, even for coastal sections. This should lead to widespread middle and upper 70s, with only perhaps the south fork of LI with some localized 60s right at the waterfront. A few spots in NE NJ could very well get to 80 for max temperatures. For tonight under clear skies look for a fairly mild night. There really won`t be that much of an airmass change with what`s left of a cold front slowly sliding through. Under mostly clear skies with high pressure slowly beginning it build from the west look for light winds and near normal to slightly above normal temperatures. Lows should range from the middle 40s in far NW interior sections, to the middle 50s across the metro. High pressure is expected to settle nearby for mid week. This should lead to large scale subsidence overall. The upper level jet is progged to remain over Northern New England and into the Saint Lawrence River Valley up to the north. With the area on the southern side of the polar jet temperatures should continue to run above normal temperatures wise, especially during the day Wednesday. A deep layer W to NW flow should preclude the formation of strong sea breeze development. Although, by late in the afternoon on Wednesday there may be some localized sea breeze development for a few coastal locations. Maximum temperatures once again on Wednesday should get well into the 70s in most places, with perhaps a few 60s across some eastern coastal communities. High pressure settles over the area Wednesday night with mostly clear skies and light winds. Temperatures are expected to bottom out in the 40s in the outlying areas, with some lower and middle 50s across the metro. High pressure slowly gets further east on Thursday. A return flow of shorts will attempt to set up. With the synoptic flow expected to be fairly light, look for a hybrid sea breeze to develop with a southerly flow off the cooler ocean during the day. By late in the afternoon a wide spread in temperatures should be anticipated, with mainly 60s and a few middle and upper 50s across coastal and eastern coastal sections, with 70s across western and interior locations. Temperatures are expected to be considerably cooler across eastern coastal sections for the late day and early evening with a wind off the colder ocean. High pressure offshore at the start of this period will continue to retreat out into the Atlantic while the aforementioned frontal system brings a chance of showers into the area Friday afternoon with the most likely timeframe after midnight Friday through the day on Saturday. Marginal instability could result in isolated thunderstorm north and west of the NYC metro Saturday afternoon. However, onshore flow and weak lapse rates should limit coverage. High pressure then builds in from the west Sunday into Monday. Temperatures remain above normal through Saturday, warmest Thursday night through Friday night (5 to 10 degrees). A return closer to normal is expected Sunday into Monday behind the frontal system. There could be a few gusts to around 20 kt with a few marginal small craft gusts on some of the eastern and south shore bays of LI today, otherwise sub advisory conditions will prevail through Thursday night. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through Friday in a weak pressure regime. The next chance for SCA conditions will be Friday night into Saturday with a frontal system moving across the waters.
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