WLNG Weather

Friday August 7, 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
1. Hot and humid conditions persist through at least Saturday.
Continued heat but likely with lower humidity Sunday and
Monday, possibly lingering into early next week.

2. Potential for scattered afternoon/evening heavy downpours and
thunderstorms through Saturday, presenting a threat for isolated to
scattered instances of flash flooding and strong to severe
thunderstorm winds, particularly for NYC and points N&W.

.DISCUSSION...

.KEY MESSAGE 1...
An anomalously strong subtropical ridge will gradually break
down into the weekend as the westerlies once again drop back
into the area.

Deep SSW flow from Gulf/Sub-tropic origin will continue a very
warm and more notably a very humid airmass across the region
through at least Saturday.

Daytime highs will run 3 to 7 degrees above normal, well below
records, but the high humidity (mid to upper 70s Tds) will make
it feel quite uncomfortable. Heat index values today will get
solidly into heat advisory criteria. Max heat index values today
in the upper 90s to 104 across much of the area, except mid 90s
across the immediate southern and eastern coasts.

With approaching shortwave on Saturday, perhaps more in the way
of convective debris, and some subtle indication of Tds being
slightly lower (lower to mid 70s). This appears to have heat
indices slightly lower in the mid 90s to lower 100s for NYC, NJ
metro, and LI, with lower to mid 90s interior. Enough confidence
in another day of mid 90 heat indices to extend the heat
advisory into NYC, NE NJ, and LI at this point. The heat
advisory may need to be extended into Saturday for interior
areas as well if confidence in higher heat indices persists.

Better signal for lowering TDs (upper 60s/lower 70s) for Sunday
into Monday in wake of a weak cold front. So although temps
will likely remain very warm in the upper 80s/lower 90s, HI`s
will likely fall back into the lower 90s to 95. Heat advisories
may need to be extended for NE NJ and NYC Metro, but marginal
at this point.

Heat indices may perk back up into the mid to upper 90s on
Tuesday ahead of next approaching series of northern stream
shortwaves and cold front, before a general signal for a cool
down to more seasonable temps for middle of next week.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...

The subtropical ridge breaks down today into Saturday, as a
series of shortwaves approach and then cross the region around
large central Canada closed low.

These shortwave will provide better forcing for more widespread
aft/eve convection today and possibly Saturday in a similar
highly unstable, very moist, weak to marginal deep layer shear
environment. Good signal on the CAMs for iso-sct convective
initiation by early afternoon along coastal seabreeze, with
perhaps a more organized line developing across central/eastern
PA/NY working into the region late afternoon/evening. With low
MBE vectors magnitudes and high PWATS, potential for 2+"
rainfall rates and iso-sct flash flooding exists. In addition,
despite generally weak shear over the area, high instability
given the heat and humidity will provide for a potential for any
pulse-like convection to produce localized downbursts. The threat
for strong to damaging winds is slightly increased if convection
is able to organize. As a result, SPC has expanded and increased
the threat for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening,
with NYC, NE NJ, and the Lower Hudson Valley now in a slight risk
for severe thunderstorm development and a marginal risk expanded
about 1 county eastward through the CWA, generally through western
CT and central LI.

A similar threat is possible for Saturday aft/eve, although
some uncertainty on exact timing of shortwave energy and cold
front with peak diurnal instability. This will be refined the
next 24 hours with high-res model trends.

Threat for convection looks limited on Sunday in wake of weak
cold frontal passage bringing in a drier and weakly unstable
airmass.

.MARINE...

A persistent SW flow of 10 to 15 kt with gusts up 20 kt on the
ocean waters each late afternoon and evening through Sat.
Occasional gusts to 25 kt possible near entrance to NY Harbor
with coastal jet formation each late afternoon/evening, which
could have ocean seas building to 3-5 ft during these times.

Rip Currents: Persistent SW flow and associated wind waves will
lead to a moderate rip current risk today and Saturday.
Potential for rip current risk to increase to high late
afternoon and evening today with coastal jet development and
increase in breaking waves to 3 to 4 ft, particularly for NYC
and western LI beaches.