Weather with Bill Evans

National Weather Service New York NY Thursday November 13, 2025 A series of weak fronts/surface troughs pass across the region today. High pressure builds over the area Friday into Saturday before moving offshore Saturday night. A frontal system approaches Saturday night and moves through the region Sunday. High pressure builds to the west Monday into Tuesday and may settle nearby on Wednesday. The axis of an upper trough will continue to translate across the northeast today and then begin sliding off the New England coast tonight. A series of surface troughs will move across the area, one this morning and then another potentially this evening. Dry conditions are forecast through tonight. However, the second surface trough may be able to generate a few sprinkles across eastern Long Island/southeast CT. The passage of the morning surface trough will allow winds to shift to the NW. Wind speeds will also increase and become gusty during the day, with gusts 25-30 mph likely. A few gusts up to 35 mph possible near the coast cannot be ruled out this afternoon. There should be less cloud cover compared to the last few days, but still a chance for periods of mostly cloudy skies inland and eastern Long island in the afternoon. Highs will remain a few degrees below normal in the upper 40s inland and lower 50s close to the coast. Gusty winds to start this evening will gradually diminish through the night as high pressure begins to build closer to the region. Clouds will also clear through the night allowing temperatures to fall into the lower 30s inland to the middle 30s closer to the coast. A quick moving trough/front will pass across the area early Thursday. The only change to sensible weather will be from a wind shift to the NW. Gusts should still range between 25 and 30 mph although a few places could reach 35 mph at times in the afternoon, especially near the coast. Skies will likely be partly cloudy although they could briefly go mostly cloudy at times as there are still pieces of energy moving through aloft around the upper trough. Temperatures should be similar to Wednesday ranging from the upper 40s to lower 50s. The large upper trough that has been over the northeast in recent days will begin to slide off the New England coast through Thursday night into Friday. The system will then meander just off the northeast coast and the Canadian Maritimes through Friday night as ridging builds towards the area. This will allow the surface high to move closer to the region. It will remain breezy on Friday, but gusts should be much weaker compared to earlier in the week. Highs will should again range from the upper 40s to lower 50s. The coldest night to end the week looks to be Friday night as winds drop off along with mostly clear skies. Lows based on the NBM range from the upper 20s inland and lower 30s near the coast. A frontal system approaches Saturday night and moves across the region Sunday. The system brings the next period of rain, mainly Saturday night into Sunday morning. Windy conditions are expected behind the departing front Sunday night into Monday, but winds probably remain below advisory thresholds. Temperatures will be a few degrees below seasonal normals during the period except for Sunday where temperatures may briefly rebound into the upper 50s to low 60s at the coast. A closed low and upper trough diving south out of southern Canada will send a warm front towards the Saturday night with its trailing cold front passage on Sunday. Guidance is starting to come into better agreement on the timing of the system, but still differ when the main cold front will sweep across the region. The highest probability for rain will occur Saturday night into Sunday morning, mainly due to warm advection as the the warm front lifts towards the area. The cold front probably passes east of the area in the afternoon, but may not have much precip with it as it passes. The cold front passage will bring in another period of windy conditions, peaking Sunday night into Monday, as low pressure deepens to our north across SE Canada/Maritimes and high pressure builds to our west. Winds should start diminishing by Tuesday as the high pressure moves closer to the area. Mean upper troughing will persist aloft through mid week. A shortwave and associated wave of low pressure is currently modeled to pass well to our south Tuesday into Wednesday based on the latest model consensus. NBM indicates just a slight chance late Tuesday/Tuesday evening for the southern half of the area. This seems reasonable as the majority of the guidance keeps the system south, but would not be surprised to see some fluctuations with this in subsequent forecasts given that this is about six days out. SCA conditions will continue through early this evening. Winds should start subsiding below 25 kt on the non-ocean waters tonight, but are likely to remain 25-30 kt on the ocean through Friday. Ocean seas gradually subside through Friday, but will remain above 5 ft through much of tonight. A period of sub-SCA conditions are expected on Saturday. SCA conditions then return late Saturday into Sunday with the next frontal system. Gales are possible on the waters Sunday afternoon behind the passage of a cold front, with this threat continuing into Monday with a tight pressure gradient. Will include this potential in the HWO.