Weather with Bill Evans
National Weather Service New York NY
Tuesday April 22, 2025
A cold front slowly pushes across today. High pressure gradually
builds tonight into Wednesday and remains in control through
Thursday night. A frontal system will move across the area late
Friday into Saturday. High pressure then builds in Sunday into
Monday.
Other than some clouds this morning along a cold front, expect more
in the way of sunshine for the late morning and afternoon. It will
be a fantastic spring day with above normal temperatures. The
question for today`s forecast is how much to go above guidance in
terms of temperatures? NWP global guidance has 5 kft temperatures
hovering around 10 C with a W to WSW flow throughout the column.
Steep lapse rates will lead to excellent mixing, especially from the
sfc to 5-6 kft. A cold front moves into the area and sort of washes
out to a degree. Therefore not expecting much if any wind direction
shift. A W to WSW flow should be maintained with neutral advection.
This should lead to warmer than normal temperatures, even for
coastal sections. This should lead to widespread middle and upper
70s, with only perhaps the south fork of LI with some localized 60s
right at the waterfront. A few spots in NE NJ could very well get to
80 for max temperatures.
For tonight under clear skies look for a fairly mild night. There
really won`t be that much of an airmass change with what`s left of a
cold front slowly sliding through. Under mostly clear skies with
high pressure slowly beginning it build from the west look for light
winds and near normal to slightly above normal temperatures. Lows
should range from the middle 40s in far NW interior sections, to the
middle 50s across the metro.
High pressure is expected to settle nearby for mid week. This should
lead to large scale subsidence overall. The upper level jet is
progged to remain over Northern New England and into the Saint
Lawrence River Valley up to the north. With the area on the southern
side of the polar jet temperatures should continue to run above
normal temperatures wise, especially during the day Wednesday. A
deep layer W to NW flow should preclude the formation of strong sea
breeze development. Although, by late in the afternoon on Wednesday
there may be some localized sea breeze development for a few coastal
locations. Maximum temperatures once again on Wednesday should get
well into the 70s in most places, with perhaps a few 60s across some
eastern coastal communities.
High pressure settles over the area Wednesday night with mostly
clear skies and light winds. Temperatures are expected to bottom out
in the 40s in the outlying areas, with some lower and middle 50s
across the metro.
High pressure slowly gets further east on Thursday. A return flow of
shorts will attempt to set up. With the synoptic flow expected to be
fairly light, look for a hybrid sea breeze to develop with a
southerly flow off the cooler ocean during the day. By late in the
afternoon a wide spread in temperatures should be anticipated, with
mainly 60s and a few middle and upper 50s across coastal and eastern
coastal sections, with 70s across western and interior locations.
Temperatures are expected to be considerably cooler across eastern
coastal sections for the late day and early evening with a wind off
the colder ocean.
High pressure offshore at the start of this period will continue to
retreat out into the Atlantic while the aforementioned frontal
system brings a chance of showers into the area Friday afternoon
with the most likely timeframe after midnight Friday through the day
on Saturday. Marginal instability could result in isolated
thunderstorm north and west of the NYC metro Saturday afternoon.
However, onshore flow and weak lapse rates should limit coverage.
High pressure then builds in from the west Sunday into Monday.
Temperatures remain above normal through Saturday, warmest Thursday
night through Friday night (5 to 10 degrees). A return closer to
normal is expected Sunday into Monday behind the frontal system.
There could be a few gusts to around 20 kt with a few marginal small
craft gusts on some of the eastern and south shore bays of LI today,
otherwise sub advisory conditions will prevail through Thursday
night. Conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels through
Friday in a weak pressure regime. The next chance for SCA conditions
will be Friday night into Saturday with a frontal system moving
across the waters.
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