Weather with Bill Evans
National Weather Service New York NY
Wednesday April 2, 2025
High pressure builds offshore this afternoon, allowing for a warm
frontal passage Thursday morning. An associated cold front drops
into the area by Friday. Unsettled conditions are likely this
weekend with a frontal boundary in the vicinity. The front moves
offshore on Monday with high pressure slowly returning into
Tuesday.
High pres centered over QC ridges swd into the region today,
with the sfc ridge axis drifting E of the cwa by the end of the
day. This will result in lgt NE winds to start the day, veering
to the SE by this aftn. Dry mid lvls no pcpn is expected, but
mid and high clouds should thicken this aftn per model progs and
the current IR over OH. The NBM was used for temps. Cool with
highs in the 40s fcst.
Onshore flow builds llvl moisture tngt. As the bl cools,
stratus, fog and dz expected to develop late tngt into Thu. The
fog will be difficult to displace on Thu with continued onshore
flow and a thick high cloud deck produced by the subtropical
tap. Nonetheless, still expect wrn areas to at least break out
with the flow coming around to about 210. This should allow
these areas to warm into the lwr 70s. If the area does not
break out temps will be a bust.
The cdfnt associated with the massive sys approaches late Thu,
and gradually sinks thru the cwa on Fri. All of the jet energy
escapes into Canada, so there will not be much upr lvl support.
Unsettled conditions are expected this weekend with a frontal
boundary in the vicinity.
Showers are most likely on Saturday and then again late Sunday into
Sunday night.
Improving conditions are likely Monday with high pressure slowly
building towards the area on Tuesday.
Seasonably cool temperatures Saturday should trend warmer on Sunday
with some 70s possible for NE NJ, NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valley.
Temperatures then trend cooler early next week.
High pressure over New England Friday evening will quickly pass
offshore. The frontal boundary that moved south of the area early
Friday will begin retreating northward as a warm front into
Saturday. This is in response to an amplifying shortwave over the
southwest U.S. and anomalously strong ridge over the western
Atlantic. Friday night will be dry with increasing chances for rain
on Saturday. The most organized forcing passes to our northwest, but
warm advection and overrunning support the likely PoPs (60-70
percent) from the latest model consensus. The northern tier stands
the best chance (80 percent), closer to the larger scale lift from a
strong upper jet well north of the area. Rain remains possible
Saturday night, but could trend towards more light rain and drizzle
as the warm front moves closer to the area.
While there will be rain at times this weekend, the risk of
any impacts from flooding is very low as the flow is progressive.
The latest NBM probabilities for observed greater than 1 inch in a 24
hour period this weekend remain very low and generally 10 percent or
less.
Seas will remain elevated on the ern ocean today, and then winds and
seas increase thru Thu. The sca has been extended right thru
thu as a result. A sca goes into effect for ANZ355 this eve, and
goes thru Thu as well. Winds on the remaining waters likely at
sca lvls Thu, but held off on the advy for now. Winds and seas
gradually subside late Thu ngt and Fri.
There is a chance for dense fog on the waters late tngt thru
Thu.
Conditions should remain below SCA levels Friday night through
Saturday night. The next chance for SCA conditions appears to be on
Sunday as a warm front lifts north of the waters. Winds could
approach 25 kt on the ocean and seas will likely build to 5-6 ft.
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