Weather with Bill Evans

National Weather Service New York NY Wednesday April 2, 2025 High pressure builds offshore this afternoon, allowing for a warm frontal passage Thursday morning. An associated cold front drops into the area by Friday. Unsettled conditions are likely this weekend with a frontal boundary in the vicinity. The front moves offshore on Monday with high pressure slowly returning into Tuesday. High pres centered over QC ridges swd into the region today, with the sfc ridge axis drifting E of the cwa by the end of the day. This will result in lgt NE winds to start the day, veering to the SE by this aftn. Dry mid lvls no pcpn is expected, but mid and high clouds should thicken this aftn per model progs and the current IR over OH. The NBM was used for temps. Cool with highs in the 40s fcst. Onshore flow builds llvl moisture tngt. As the bl cools, stratus, fog and dz expected to develop late tngt into Thu. The fog will be difficult to displace on Thu with continued onshore flow and a thick high cloud deck produced by the subtropical tap. Nonetheless, still expect wrn areas to at least break out with the flow coming around to about 210. This should allow these areas to warm into the lwr 70s. If the area does not break out temps will be a bust. The cdfnt associated with the massive sys approaches late Thu, and gradually sinks thru the cwa on Fri. All of the jet energy escapes into Canada, so there will not be much upr lvl support. Unsettled conditions are expected this weekend with a frontal boundary in the vicinity. Showers are most likely on Saturday and then again late Sunday into Sunday night. Improving conditions are likely Monday with high pressure slowly building towards the area on Tuesday. Seasonably cool temperatures Saturday should trend warmer on Sunday with some 70s possible for NE NJ, NYC metro and Lower Hudson Valley. Temperatures then trend cooler early next week. High pressure over New England Friday evening will quickly pass offshore. The frontal boundary that moved south of the area early Friday will begin retreating northward as a warm front into Saturday. This is in response to an amplifying shortwave over the southwest U.S. and anomalously strong ridge over the western Atlantic. Friday night will be dry with increasing chances for rain on Saturday. The most organized forcing passes to our northwest, but warm advection and overrunning support the likely PoPs (60-70 percent) from the latest model consensus. The northern tier stands the best chance (80 percent), closer to the larger scale lift from a strong upper jet well north of the area. Rain remains possible Saturday night, but could trend towards more light rain and drizzle as the warm front moves closer to the area. While there will be rain at times this weekend, the risk of any impacts from flooding is very low as the flow is progressive. The latest NBM probabilities for observed greater than 1 inch in a 24 hour period this weekend remain very low and generally 10 percent or less. Seas will remain elevated on the ern ocean today, and then winds and seas increase thru Thu. The sca has been extended right thru thu as a result. A sca goes into effect for ANZ355 this eve, and goes thru Thu as well. Winds on the remaining waters likely at sca lvls Thu, but held off on the advy for now. Winds and seas gradually subside late Thu ngt and Fri. There is a chance for dense fog on the waters late tngt thru Thu. Conditions should remain below SCA levels Friday night through Saturday night. The next chance for SCA conditions appears to be on Sunday as a warm front lifts north of the waters. Winds could approach 25 kt on the ocean and seas will likely build to 5-6 ft.