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Weather with Bill Evans

National Weather Service New York NY Monday Feb. 10, 2024 Tranquil weather is expected today as high pressure builds in slowly from the west. Mid and high clouds across the region this morning will move east in the near zonal flow, with a drier airmass moving in. Lower levels will remain moist with strato cu developing. A cold airmass and the snowpack will keep temperatures a few degrees below normal. Tonight the high moves overhead, and then offshore early Tuesday morning. With winds becoming light and skies nearly clear, especially early, as high clouds move in toward Tuesday morning, and the snowpack will allow temperatures to fall into the teens across the interior and the normally colder areas of Long Island. Tuesday the high continues to move off the northeast coast and a weak wave of low pressure approaches from the southwest. Another high builds across southern Canada. The low tracks well to the south Tuesday night with a period of light snow across the region Tuesday night. Little to no snow will fall across the northern areas, with the highest snow totals across the New York City metro and Long Island where around 2 inches of snow is possible. The strength of the high will determine the track of the low and a slightly farther north track will result in a little more snow along the coast. The system will be relatively quick moving as nearly zonal flow persists. Low pressure passing south of the region departs early Wednesday morning. Any light snow comes to an end early. Surface high pressure builds slightly to our northeast during Wednesday with upper confluence. Surface ridging should be strong enough to hold off any precipitation through the daytime hours, however, will continue to leave a slight chance of snow for some areas. Precip is then expected Wednesday night and Thursday with a familiar pattern of primary low pressure passing to our NW while a weaker secondary low shifts nearby or through the forecast area. This would send an elevated warm nose through, changing snow to a wintry mix Wednesday night before an eventual changeover to rain on Thursday as enough warm air pushes in. Right now it appears that snow/sleet accumulations would be on the light side before the changeover to rain. Can`t rule out a little freezing rain north and west of the city either. Colder air filters back in from the NW Thursday night as high pressure builds back in behind the departing storm. Dry weather will be likely for this period as models have trended faster with the storm. Dry weather then remains for Friday and Friday night with high pressure in control. Another storm then likely brings a wintry mix possibly by the end of the day Saturday, but more likely Saturday night and Sunday. Not so sure that this will be another case of a primary/secondary low center bringing in a warm nose aloft, so kept precip types simplified to rain, snow or a mix of the two. With a weak pressure gradient force across the waters today through Tuesday night winds and seas will remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters. An easterly flow on the area waters may result in some marginal small craft conditions on the ocean waters Wednesday. A better chance of small craft conditions occurs Wednesday night into Thursday morning as low pressure passes over the area waters. Advisory-level gusts anticipated on all waters during this period. Winds then shift offshore Thursday afternoon after a brief lull before increasing once again Thursday night with SCA conditions probable on all waters. Winds weaken on Friday with advisory conditions remaining mostly on the ocean waters. Another round of SCA conditions are expected over the weekend.
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