WLNG Weather

Wednesday February 18, 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Dense fog on the land and water will impact the area into
early this morning. Areas of black ice possible.

2) Mainly rain event for the area today into tonight.

3) Rain across the southern sections with a wintry mix inland Thursday
night through Friday night.

4) Potential for coastal low to impact the area late in the
weekend into early next week.

.KEY MESSAGE 1...
A warm front was slowly moving into the region from the
southwest and will become nearly stationary during the day. With
the warmer air moving over the snowpack fog has become
widespread, with areas of dense. As low level winds increase
this morning visibilities are expected to improve, although fog
will linger into tonight. A Dense Fog Advisory remains in
effect through 10 AM EST. And with temperatures at or below
freezing outside of the NYC metro area and away from the
immediate coast moisture will freeze on the colder surfaces with
the potential for black ice on untreated surfaces. A Special
Weather Statement is in effect until 10 AM EST as temperatures
are then expected to rise to above freezing across the region.
With the warm front approaching toward the morning hours some
light precipitation will be possible. Depending on how quickly
temperatures rise there may be pockets of freezing rain inland
as the warmer air moves in aloft, with plain rain along the
coast as temperatures rise to above freezing.

.KEY MESSAGE 2...
A warm front will become nearly stationary in the vicinity this
morning. Weak waves of low pressure are likely to develop along
the front, and chances of precipitation will increase.
Temperatures are expected to rise rather quickly during the
morning and plain rain is expected. However, there may be a few
pockets of freezing rain across the interior valleys. There is
uncertainty as to how far inland the warm front will move as
high pressure begins to build in from the north by this
afternoon, and light northerly winds develop. As colder air
begins to filter southward, and move the front back south as a
cold front, there is a chance that snow mixes in, possibly some
sleet and freezing rain, across the interior before ending by
late tonight.

.KEY MESSAGE 3...
Surface and upper low pressure linger in the Great Lakes region
Wednesday night into Thursday night as another shortwave
approaches in the southern stream and then phases with the
northern energy by Friday morning. The southern low merges with
the northern low, deepening and becoming the primary low. This
low will then be slow to track east as downstream weak upper
ridging remains in place. Another warm front will be approaching
the region Thursday night into Friday. Wintry precipitation
develops Thursday night and slowly changes over to plain rain
from the south to the north during Friday as the low and warm
front slowly track northward. There is uncertainty as too how
far north the warm front tracks as weak pressure along the mid
Atlantic coast will allow for another surface low to develop,
potentially keeping the warm front to the south. As a result
there is also uncertainty with precipitation type and
transition to plain rain during Friday.

.KEY MESSAGE 4...
There is impressive agreement among the latest 12z guidance
this far out with a coastal low impacting the area late in the
weekend into the start of next week.

As the aforementioned wave of low pressure and warm front get pushed
out of the area, high pressure looks to briefly nose in from the
north. At the same time, low pressure is progged to deepen off the
Carolina or Delmarva coast at it tracks northeast towards our area.
While there is good agreement that there will be a coastal storm
passing to our southeast, there is still uncertainty with strength,
timing and track as is normal this far out. It is too far out to
talk specifics for QPF and snow amount, but it is worth noting that
the mean QPF from the NBM version 4.3 and 5.0 have both been
gradually increasing the last 120 hours and are currently right
around 0.75 inches. Additionally, looking at the latest LREF member
plumes for QPF, the Grand Ensemble QPF is about 0.35 to 0.40 across
the area with noticeable clustering of members around an inch. These
values indicate that the potential is at least there for a warning
level (6+ inches) snowfall.

One thing to note is the ECMWF`s flatter and less intense solution.
Trends will continue to be monitored over the next several days and
specifics details will continue to be ironed out.

.MARINE...

A Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect for all the forecast
waters through 10 AM EST as a warm front moves into the region
this morning. Also, with lingering, and subsiding, long period
easterly swell, a Small Craft Advisory remains on the ocean
waters until 600 AM EST. Ocean seas do build back to near 5
feet late Wednesday night into Thursday with an increasing
easterly flow, and another SCA will likely be needed.

Ocean seas then briefly subside to sub-SCA conditions once
again Thu night.

SCA conditions possible on the ocean waters Friday into
Saturday morning with 5 ft seas. Quiet conditions then expected
until Sunday when winds and waves potentially pick up as a
coastal low passes by. If this low trends closer to the area
then expected wind and wave forecast to increase.