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Weather with Bill Evans

Good Monday Morning, A weak cold front continues moving offshore early this morning. A few more light showers may accompany the front passage across eastern Long Island through day break. Clearing conditions will occur this morning behind the front. High pressure builds to the west today. NW flow around the high will help lower dew points well into the 20s inland and to around 30 near the coast. As has been the case in recent weeks, a similar surface pattern of a drying NW flow has warmed temperatures above guidance. Have followed suit for todays high temperature forecast with readings well into the 60s across the area. A weak surface trough may set up in the late afternoon, which could allow a light seabreeze to develop near the immediate coast. The region will remain on the southern periphery of a large upper cyclone across the Canadian Maritimes tonight. Shortwave energy within the NW flow aloft should bring an increase in clouds through the night. Lows will be in the 30s inland and Long Island Pine Barrens and lower to middle 40s elsewhere. A flattening upper ridge approaches on Tuesday. This sends the surface high pressure offshore through the day. The clouds from Monday night may briefly clear before increasing again late in the day ahead of an approaching warm front from the southwest. High temperatures should be able to reach the lower and middle 60s. A wave of low pressure and a fast moving middle level shortwave will bring increasing chances for showers Tuesday night, especially after midnight. The low moves through on Wednesday morning, along the warm front which tries to lift into the area, and then offshore in the afternoon. The highest probability of showers occurs during the early morning hours with limited chances late in the day as the low and frontal boundary shift away from the region. The shortwave with this system is flat and overall lift is weak. Forecast rain amounts are around a few tenths of an inch. Some partial clearing is possible in the afternoon, which should allow temperatures to reach the low 60s in the NYC metro. Clouds may hold on longest out east with temperatures struggling to get out of the low 50s. A ridge briefly moves overhead on Wednesday night, followed by a vigorous cut-off low low diving southeast from the Great Lakes on Thursday. This system will send a strong cold front across the region on Thursday and bring the next likelihood of showers. Energy and lift with this system are impressive. Some of the models have the strongest lift passing to the north, while others have it over the region. Will have to monitor model trends in the next few days as there could be some thunderstorms as well. Have left mention of thunder out of the forecast for now, but will have to monitor subsequent model trends in the next days due to the anomalous nature of the upper pattern. Low pressure deepens as it moves across the region Thursday, along the New England coast Thursday night and then up into the Canadian Maritimes on Friday. The upper low carves out a longwave trough over the Eastern Seaboard for Friday and possibly Saturday, but model differences are quite large for this time frame. Drier conditions should return during this time frame. There remains uncertainty heading into Sunday as the ECMWF shows a low moving across and other numerical models showing more of a frontal passage. Temperatures trend below normal Friday into Saturday, then possible near normal on Sunday.
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