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Weather with Bill Evans

Good Day and Happy Sunday! Here's the latest on Isaias: Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 21 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020 500 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020 The burst of deep convection that developed to the northeast of the center last evening has not resulted in any significant improvement in the structure of Isaias according to recent reconnaissance aircraft data and radar imagery. The tropical cyclone is still being adversely affected by about 25 kt of 850-200 mb vertical wind shear. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has provided several center fixes overnight has found peak 850-mb flight-level winds of 67 kt, and peak believable SFMR winds of 51 kt. These data, along with an earlier ASCAT overpass, indicate that Isaias' intensity is 55 kt. In addition, both the aircraft and ASCAT data suggest that the wind field over the western portion of the circulation is somewhat smaller than previous estimated. Since Isaias has not shown any signs of re-organizing overnight, it appears that the window of opportunity for it to re-strengthen is closing. The SHIPS guidance and global model fields do not show the shear abating during the next 24-36 hours while Isaias moves near the Florida coast. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast shows little change in strength during this time. Later in the period, gradual weakening should occur as the storm moves northward along the east coast of the United States. The NHC intensity forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus model and the latest multi-model intensity consensus. Recent aircraft fixes and radar data show that Isaias is moving northwestward or 325/8 kt. A slow northwestward to north-northwestward motion around the western periphery of a deep-layer ridge centered near Bermuda should take the center of Isaias very near the east coast of Florida through Monday. After that, the tropical cyclone should begin to accelerate north-northeastward to northeastward as a trough slides eastward into the eastern United States. The dynamical models are tightly clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies between the typically reliable GFS and ECMWF models. The reduction in the initial and predicted intensity of Isaias has necessitated changes in warnings along the east coast of Florida. The Hurricane Warning along the east-central coast of Florida has been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.
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