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Weather with Bill Evans

Good Monday Morning! High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes slides east as a second high pressure system builds to the west near Pennsylvania. This system then builds over the Atlantic this week. A cold frontal passage is expected late Friday into Saturday. Clouds may linger over central Long Island while the mid levels remain quite dry through the evening. The upper level ridge over the Canadian Maritimes shifts east overnight. As this happens a broad surface low pressure system off the Atlantic coast drift west. Some model guidance is hinting at an increase in moisture from the system which could initiate a isolated shower over the marine zones or the extreme southeast portions of Long Island. More likely this moisture manifests as stratus clouds around sunrise Monday morning. Temperatures will remain mild tonight in the low 50s overnight. There is a high rip current risk this eve. An upper level ridge centered over the Mid Atlantic amplifies Monday in response to a diving longwave trough above the western CONUS. The airmass from this ridge keeps moisture at the mid levels low and the subsidence promotes a stable environment. The 1000-500mb RH values remain below 50% through the short term. Interesting enough the 1000- 850 mb RH values stay between 90-80%. Together this translates to fair weather clouds in the afternoon and near zero rain chances during the day. High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 60s and low 70s. Overnight a short wave trough rides the northern edge of the overhead ridge through Quebec. A weak trailing cold front extending through central New York could bring some isolated showers for the Lower Hudson Valley Monday night into Tuesday morning though this is a low probability event due to the dry air already in place. However fog or low stratus may be possible over the forecast area as low level moisture should remain elevated even into the overnight hours. A limiting factor may be the ambient temperatures which could remain in the mid the upper 50s overnight. This could mitigate the fog near the city and other areas where higher temperatures persist. There is a moderate rip current risk on Mon. A thermal ridge builds into the nern CONUS, producing a warm temps this week. Return flow around an offshore high however will be a limiting factor. Temps aloft would yield upper 80s at times, but the marine influence will not allow for this potential to be realized. Humidity will increase, and areas fog and stratus development each night into the mrng will remain a challenge. It is possible some coastal areas get locked in, which would severely limit temps. There could also be some spotty drizzle, but it is too uncertain to place in the fcst at this time. It would not be surprising to see some type of dense fog advy needed for portions of the area at times this week. Timing of the next cold front is Fri ngt into Sat per the ECMWF and GFS. Will start chances for tstms Thu ngt with a surge of theta-e, then the upr trof looks to get close enough to initiate some shwrs and tstms on Fri. The front itself arrives Fri ngt into Sat. A round of severe is possible with this sys, but will depend on the timing of everything. Right now it is too far out to tell. The models bring the front offshore Sat mrng. Pops were limited to high chance as this is still several days away and timing can change. Went close to the MEX for highs and NBM for lows. There is a moderate rip current risk on Tue. ......MARINE...Boating.....Surfing..... Northeast winds lighten tonight to 10-15 kts, then slowly turn toward the E. Seas subside, and should fall below 5 ft by Monday afternoon. As such, extending the SCA through noon Monday to account for those lingering rough seas. Winds and seas will be blw sca lvls Tue-Thu, however there could be some hazards due to fog. A sca may be needed on the ocean Thu ngt thru Sat as a frontal sys reaches the area.
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