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Weather with Bill Evans

Good Day On This Monday June 5, 2023 Deepening low pressure east of New England lifts up into the Canadian Maritimes by tonight, where it will remain nearly stationary through the week. The low will drag a cold front across southeast Canada today and then across the area on Tuesday. A surface trough will follow for Wednesday. Weak high pressure builds in for Saturday. A cold front approaches late Saturday into Sunday. A highly anomalous blocking pattern (Omega Block) across North America will feature a cutoff low off the New England coast and a high amplitude ridge across central Canada. This will allow for deepening low pressure east of New England to lift slowly north into the Canadian Maritimes by tonight, where it will become nearly stationary for the remainder of the week. Cloud associated with the low will gradually work east this morning with some sun expected across NYC and points north and west. However, clouds will be more plentiful to the east, especially across eastern LI and SE CT. A brief shower is also possible across New London County CT today. Deep cyclonic flow and steep lapse rates will allow for some of the clouds to fill back in across western areas this afternoon. NW winds this afternoon will gusts up to 20 mph. High today will be close to seasonable levels in the 70s, nearing 80 in metro NJ. Far eastern areas will be the coolest due to the cloud cover with highs around 70. The aforementioned upper low and deepening surface low become nearly stationary tonight in the vicinity of Nova Scotia and New Brunswick. This will aid a cold front dropping out of southeast Canada to approach from the NW tonight and work across the forecast area Tuesday afternoon. In addition, a shortwave trough drops down the backside of the trough and across the areas as well on Tuesday. This will result in a good chance for showers, possibly a thunderstorm. While low-level lapse rates will be around 7C, instability is marginal and moisture is limited. So there is some uncertainty on the coverage of the showers at this time. SPC has placed the area under a general thunderstorm threat. Additionally, the RAP and HRRR smoke model fields once again begin to bring wildfire smoke into the region tonight and Tuesday. The smoke does lower per the guidance for Tuesday, but with deep mixing and a cold front moving through the area, visibilities are not expected to be an issue at this time. Haze aloft and the smell of smoke are good possibilities. Temperatures remain nearly seasonable tonight in the lower 50s inland, to around 60 across the NYC metro. For Tuesday, ahead of the cold front, it looks to be slightly warmer with most locations in the mid to upper 70s, but around 80 for the NYC metro. Any lingering showers and/or thunderstorms exit eastern areas of LI and CT early Tuesday evening. Another piece of energy drops across the area Wednesday afternoon with slight chance of showers. Airmass is drier and even more stable. Highs Wednesday cool down a bit, but still right around normal. An omega block will continue to dominate the large scale pattern over the CONUS, its eastern leg being a Canadian Maritimes closed low. Disturbances pinwheeling around the upper low will bring chances for afternoon and late day showers mainly inland, possibly also a tstm on Thursday. Temps during the period should run a few degrees below avg. The pattern will start to become more progressive this weekend, with the pesky Maritimes upper low opening up into a trough and pulling away to the east. Locally this will allow heights to rise aloft and an associated warming trend to take place this weekend, with temps returning to near the seasonal avg for Sat, and a few degrees above that for NYC metro and the interior on Sunday. An approaching cold front may bring showers and possibly a tstm inland late day Sunday, with a better chance for showers Sunday night. Sub-SCA conditions will be on tap to start the week with NW winds on the backside of low pressure thats becomes nearly stationary over the Canadian maritimes. Winds and waves are forecast to remain below SCA levels through Friday as the low begins to gradually weaken the second half of the week with the pressure gradient continuing to weaken. A deepening offshore low east of New England today will produce an easterly swell in addition to Ekman transport with a prolonged northerly flow offshore. Guidance is suggesting waters levels could be a bit higher for high tide later tonight. Additional statements and/or an advisory are possible. There is a moderate risk of rip currents today and Tuesday.
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