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Weather with Bill Evans

Good Day On This Friday May 7, 2021 Weak high pressure will move across New England and be in control today. A trough of low pressure will slowly push across late tonight into Saturday. A warm front along with an associated low pressure area will approach the region Sunday night into Monday morning. The low and front moves east of the region Monday into Monday night. High pressure will strengthen in the Ohio Valley and remain to our west heading into midweek followed by that high moving directly over the region for Wednesday night into Thursday of next week. A frontal system approaches for late Thursday next week. Weak high pressure will move across Northern New England today providing a dry day. More in the way of sunshine is expected for the first half of the day, then more in the way of high level clouds for the afternoon along with perhaps more of a mid deck towards evening. The winds will be light, with more of a easterly flow getting established for the afternoon. For tonight look for more in the way of clouds, though much of the night should feature a mid deck with the lower levels staying relatively dry. The current thinking has the majority of the night staying completely dry across the majority of the area. Across far western sections is where chance POPs were thrown in for mainly after midnight. Temperatures overall for today and tonight should average up to a few degrees below normal. The upper level trough which has set up across much of the Eastern CONUS begins to pivot through for the first half of the weekend. With the upper level trough progressing east any offshore low should move north and northeast and far enough away to not impact the area. However, the upper level energy along with an area of convergence in the lower levels will slowly move through. This should result in a line or area of rain / showers across western and northwestern areas Saturday morning which will gradually attempt to shift east into the afternoon and evening. The question is how much of the precip can hold together as what is left of any mid level forcing swings through. Precip amounts will be very light across the areas from Saturday morning through early Saturday evening. The upper level trough lifts northeast into Saturday night and Sunday morning as heights begin to rise just a bit. Skies should gradually clear out Saturday night leading to a mostly sunny start to Mother`s Day. Later on Mother`s Day clouds will increase quickly during the afternoon with the chance of light rain increasing towards the late afternoon and early evening. Eastern most sections stand a better chance of staying completely dry through the day based on the latest global model consensus. The warm front approaches near the region along with its associated low pressure center Sunday night into Monday. Isentropic lift and warm air advection in the low levels will allow for the development of overrunning stratiform rain Sunday night into Monday. The will make for less of a diurnal temperature range. Lows Sunday night will be ranging from the mid 40s to lower 50s and highs for Monday will only range from the upper 50s to lower 60s. By Monday afternoon into Monday night, the low tracks northeast out towards Nova Scotia with the frontal boundary also moving east of the region. Rain chances linger Monday, especially for Eastern Long Island where it will still be likely for the first half of the day. Drier conditions return Monday night into Tuesday with a strengthening zonal mid and upper level flow as a mid and upper level low push southward into Northern New England. NW flow increases and becomes gusty Tuesday through Wednesday as high pressure strengthens in the Ohio Valley with strengthening low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes. The gusty winds and some clouds will keep highs on Tuesday several degrees below normal, mainly low to mid 60s for highs. Max temperatures are forecast to be slightly warmer on Wednesday as the airmass begins to moderate as NW flow decreases slightly and 850mb temperatures slightly increase compared to the previous day. High pressure from the west moves directly across the region Wednesday night into Thursday and then offshore by late Thursday and into Thursday night. Winds will further weaken with the decrease in pressure gradient. Temperatures will continue to trend slightly warmer for highs on Thursday as the airmass continues to moderate. Next frontal system approaches late next Thursday with a slight chance of rain showers in the afternoon and a chance for rain showers Thursday night. .MARINE... High pressure north of the waters along with the lack of any pressure gradient will result in sub SCA conditions today. A easterly flow develops today, but should only result in up to 3 ft seas out on the ocean. Sub SCA conditions will continue into Saturday as a trough of low pressure moves over the waters and results in relatively light winds. For Saturday night as an offshore low pulls away to the northeast the pressure gradient will briefly increase with gusts potentially up to 20 kts on the ocean and some of the eastern nearshore waters. Seas out on the ocean Saturday night may briefly build to 4 ft. On Sunday the winds are expected to shift to more of a SW direction with conditions still expected to remain below small craft criteria, with gusts approaching 20 kts or so on the ocean and some of the southern and eastern nearshore waters. SCA conditions are expected across the ocean majority of the time Sunday night through Tuesday night. For non-ocean waters, while seas will be well below SCA thresholds, the wind gusts are forecast to reach SCA criteria of 25 kt Tuesday through Tuesday night. Sunday night through Monday night will have winds being below SCA thresholds for non-ocean zones.
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