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Weather with Bill Evans

Happy Tuesday!! Light returns showing up on radar across parts of the area this morning, but the closest observations of precipitation reaching the surface continue to be back across central and eastern Pennsylvania. High resolution models generally seem to have a good handle on this, with little in the way of precipitation until closer to noon as the area of precipitation currently across eastern Virginia lifts northeast. Made only minor changes with this update, mostly to capture the latest temperature trends. A weakening area of low pressure will track east out of the Ohio Valley through the day today, eventually passing south of the area this evening. As it does so, precipitation chances will increase through the morning hours, with light rain becoming likely during the afternoon. With the warm front remaining suppressed to the south, temperatures will be noticeably cooler than the past few days, with highs remaining in the upper 40s to around 50 under plenty of cloud cover. The steadiest precipitation will come to an end tonight as the low continues to weaken and track off to the east. At the same time, another, more potent, low will begin to develop across the Ohio Valley by Wednesday morning. With the local area in between the two systems, the combination of abundant low level moisture and easterly flow will result in a chance of drizzle or at times light rain, along with areas of fog. Have capped PoPs around 30 percent during the day on Wednesday, and expect overall precipitation amounts to remain light, generally only a few hundredths of an inch at most. Temperatures tonight and Wednesday will continue to run above normal, with overnight lows in the mid 30s to around 40 and daytime highs in the mid to upper 40s. As primary low pressure moves across western PA/NY Wed night, a deepening triple point low will approach and move across. Spotty light/rain/drizzle and areas of fog initially as we remain in the cool sector will give way to a band of showers and isold/sct tstms, mainly around and after midnight. Precip should taper off from SW-NE Thursday from morning into early afternoon, and could mix with or change to snow before ending in the higher elevations well north/west, with little to no accumulation. A longwave trough will become a closed upper low over SE Canada and northern New England later this week. Have gone with a dry forecast for late Thursday through the weekend with a persistent/brisk W flow, shifting NW Friday night into the weekend as the tail end of the closed low drifts across and sends a sfc cold front across. Specific pieces of energy around the flow could lead to some snow showers or flurries at times. High pressure will finally build to the coast early next week. Temperatures start out above normal, then should run below normal Friday through Monday.
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