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Weather with Bill Evans

Good Day On This Friday January 15, 2020 Weak high pressure today gives way to low pressure approaching tonight and passing through on Saturday. The low moves away from the area Saturday night into Sunday. A cold front moves through Monday. High pressure builds in Monday night through Wednesday. Another cold front moves through Wednesday, with high pressure building in behind it. Low clouds and reduced visibilities are prominent in the northern portions of the CWA this morning as a drop in temperatures has allowed the development of some patchy fog with the potential for some freezing fog or black ice through early this morning. An SPS is out for these areas through 9AM for this potential. Cloud cover should gradually increase through the day as a vigorous trough and surface low pressure system approach the area from the west. Winds will gradually pick up today out of the E/ESE. This flow off the ocean will allow for the increase of low level moisture through the day with temperature expected to rise into the middle and upper 40s along the coast. Warm air advection will increase ahead of the approaching frontal system through the afternoon and with a moist boundary layer, some rain showers may develop as early as the mid to late afternoon for westernmost areas like the NYC metro, Lower Hudson Valley, and NE NJ. By evening, the strength of the WAA is rapidly increasing as a mid- level PVA allows a surface low pressure to develop along the baroclinic frontal boundary along the East Coast. This will allow for the rapid blossoming of steady light to moderate precipitation to overtake much of the area as the surface low pressure deepens and moves over the CWA from south to north. Precipitation will gradually increase in intensity through the night as the entire system moves fairly quickly through the CWA from southwest to northeast. There is enough moisture in the atmosphere to potentially produce rainfall rates of up to 0.5 inch per hour in the heaviest of precipitation bands. This is more likely to occur for areas toward the east, like Long Island and southern CT, as the low will have more time to organize and strengthen before the best dynamics move to the northeast. By sunrise much of the heaviest of precipitation should be in the eastern half of the CWA with only residual rain showers elsewhere. Winds will shift out of the SW and then W through the day but remain quite brisk as the pressure gradient remains tight over the area. The chance of any additional showers remains fairly low through the day but chance and slight chance pops were left in (mostly for the northern portions of the CWA) as the large parent low pressure moves by to our north and an upper level low moves overhead. As temperatures decrease toward the afternoon and evening on Saturday, any brief showers may be in the form of snow but no accumulation is expected. All said and done, the area can see anywhere from 1 - 1.5 inches of rain with localized areas in CT and eastern LI approaching 2 inches. Low pressure will continue to move away from the forecast area Saturday night into northern New England. There may be some lingering snow or rain/snow showers early Saturday night as the broad upper level low will remain to our west, over central New York and central Pennsylvania. However, models suggest that dry air moves up along the coastal plain, likely part of the dry slot with the synoptic system, so much of Saturday night should be dry. Sunday should be dry as well as an upper level low over the mid-West moves east and weakens into a trough while the surface low pressure continues to push away from the region into northern New England. However, the low will intensify, and the pressure gradient between it and the high pressure to the south will increase. This will lead to windy conditions on Sunday, with west winds of 15 to 25 mph and gusts 25 to as high as 40 mph possible (mainly across south fork of Long Island). Of course this is still a few days away and will be fine tuned as we get closer to Sunday. A weak cold front will move through on Monday. This system appears to be moisture starved, and should move through dry. Another cold front approaches Wednesday and moves through late. This too looks moisture starved, though a stray snow shower cannot be ruled out as it moves through. High pressure builds in for Wednesday night. Models show a frontal system over the mid-West approaching the area late next week, but there is considerable uncertainty with fronts and low pressure systems at this time. As far as temperatures, lack of any arctic air throughout the long term will mean seasonable temperatures will continue. .MARINE... With an increasing southeast flow ahead of a warm front there is the potential for SCA level wind gusts by early this afternoon. As a result the advisory beginning time is now 18Z across all the forecast waters. Winds increase into this evening, with the possibility of occasional gusts near gale force late this evening into the overnight east of Moriches Inlet. Overnight winds will begin to diminish as a wave of low pressure develops along a cold front moving into the western waters. The SCA will continue for all the waters through tonight. Then with gusts continuing to near SCA levels on the ocean waters, eastern Long Island Sound, and the eastern bays, the SCA was extended for these areas through Saturday, as well as the ocean waters. After a brief lull in the winds during Saturday, as the low deepens and tracks to the north of the waters, westerly winds and gusts increase. Small craft advisories will likely be needed for all the waters once again Saturday night. Occasional gusts may even reach near gale force across the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet Saturday night. Small conditions continue into Sunday, diminishing Sunday night, and falling below SCA levels for all the waters late Sunday night. Winds may gusts to 25 kt once again on the ocean waters Monday into Monday night as a cold front moves through, but there is uncertainty with how strong gusts will actually be at this time.
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