Weather with Bill Evans
Good Day On This Wednesday August 17, 2022
Weak low pressure well offshore will pass through the Atlantic
waters east of coastal New England today. Weak high pressure
returns Thursday and remains over the region into Friday, pushing
off the New England coast on Saturday. Meanwhile, a frontal
boundary slowly moves northward into the weekend with a series of
low pressure centers riding along it.
Center of midlevel low remains in the vicinity of Coastal New
England into daybreak. Weak surface low pressure far offshore moves
northward but stays east of the 70W longitude. Mid and high level
clouds moving north and west from the low will overspread the
region. Light rain for Southeast Connecticut and Twin Forks of Long
Island into early this morning where clouds will be relatively
lower and clouds will be thicker. Model soundings indicate a
deeper moisture vertical profile for more eastern locations
versus farther west.
Midlevel low retrogrades more west today, making its way into
Central New England. The surface low moves farther northward,
eventually making its way into the Gulf of Maine. Chances of rain
showers will remain, mainly across northern sections of the region
which will be closer to the low. Temperatures staying in the mid to
upper 70s for highs with the northerly flow and abundant clouds.
Midlevel low eventually moves northward from Gulf of Maine tonight
and moving into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday into Thursday night.
The midlevel low becomes an open wave and will no longer be closed
off. This low accelerates northeast Friday and moves near
Newfoundland.
At the surface, low moves into Maine Wednesday night into Thursday
and then moves farther northeastward into the Canadian
Maritimes Thursday night through Friday. Meanwhile, across the
local region, weak high pressure builds in.
Shower chances diminish tonight from south to north. Dry
conditions expected Thursday through Friday. Temperatures
rebound closer to normal levels Thursday and then above normal
for Friday as the airmass moderates with more SW flow.
High pressure remains over the area Friday night pushing
off the New England Coast on Saturday, while weak upper level
ridging occurs out ahead of another upper level low over the upper
mid-West Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This will mean dry
and seasonably warm temperatures for the long term period, with
highs generally in the middle 80s to around 90 (with the warmest
readings across the typically warmer spots of northeast New Jersey).
With a persistent south to southeasterly flow, humidity levels will
also slowly rise during the time frame as dew points climb into the
60s region-wide by Sunday.
A frontal boundary over the Southeast US slowly moves northward late
in the weekend and into next week. By Sunday afternoon, just a
slight chance for showers is expected. However, better chances for
precipitation come Monday through Wednesday as the boundary
continues its trek toward the area. PWATs look to increase to 1.5 to
2.0 inches for the beginning of next week. A series of low pressure
centers developing and riding this frontal boundary could point to
some flooding concerns. However, a point of uncertainty will be the
exact placement of the frontal boundary and the lows that form along
it. Therefore, flooding concerns are very low at this time.
SCA remains on the ocean through today due to residual higher
seas. Non-ocean zones are below SCA today. Sub-SCA conditions
expected tonight through Friday for all waters.
Winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA conditions this
weekend and into early next week.
Areas of severe drought dot the local area, while most
locations are designated as abnormally dry conditions or
moderate drought. Most climate locations have not received an
inch of rainfall this month. KBDI levels, which are indicative
of the subterranean depth of dryness, have worsening with time.
At present KBDI levels, fire spread is enhanced, even without
much wind. A relatively longer and steady rainfall is needed to
alleviate these conditions.
The rain today will likely not be sufficient enough to wet the
grounds. However, the other factors for fire spread today will
be less with wind gusts less than 20 mph and minimum RH staying
between 40 and 60 percent.
There is a very low chance for hydrologic impacts for the beginning
of next week as a frontal boundary moves toward the area with a
series of low pressure centers riding along the boundary.
For high tidal cycles through tonight, water levels are
expected to remain below minor coastal flood benchmarks.
For today, the residual easterly swell and higher ocean seas of
5-6 ft will lead to a high risk for rip current development. A
Rip Current Risk Statement has been issued for Wednesday.
There is a moderate risk for rip current development on
Thursday as easterly swells continues to diminish.
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