Good Day on This Wednesday December 2, 2020
High pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic region later today
into Thursday. A cold front will approach Friday into Friday
night. A period of unsettled weather is possible for the
upcoming weekend as low pressure may track near the Tri-State
area. The system may slowly move away late weekend into early
next week.
High pressure builds to our south tonight through Thursday. As a
result, expect dry conditions with lighter winds. Temperatures
tonight will be from the 20s inland/Long Island Pine Barrens to
the lower/mid 30s elsewhere. High temperatures on Thursday will
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Forecast confidence in the long term remains below average,
specifically for the upcoming weekend. The 12/1 12z deterministic
models have come into somewhat better agreement with the next
potential storm system, although there are still a wide variety of
solutions being depicted within the ensembles. Run-to-run
continuity is also low with significant changes in just one cycle.
The chance of a storm system has increased a bit, but specific
details on impacts and sensible weather remain low.
No major concerns with conditions Thursday night into Friday.
High pressure shifts off the Eastern Seaboard Thursday night
into Friday. Mainly dry conditions are forecast during this
period with day time temperatures close to seasonable levels.
Will have to watch the timing of a cold front on Friday as it
nears the region. Have a slight chance as there could be some
light rain late Friday into Friday evening.
Attention then shifts to a volatile synoptic pattern east of the
Great Plains Friday night into the weekend. There is another deep
trough within the mean upper trough that is currently digging across
the Rockies. This energy and trough is progged to cut-off from the
main flow on Wednesday and then slowly move E-NE into Friday. The
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario with the spread
occurring with how the energy interacts a large upper low over
southeast Canada by Friday night. The 12/1 12z ECMWF phases the
energy into the northern stream, creating a rapidly deepening low
pressure tracking across the region on Saturday. It should be noted
that the 12/1 00z ECMWF kept the energy separated, with just a
frontal passage Friday night. The 12/1 12z GFS and CMC keep the main
energy separate enough from the northern stream, but there is some
interaction between the two that allows low pressure to deepen as it
moves over the Middle Atlantic and then the northeast Saturday into
Sunday. The 12/1 12z ICON also shows some interaction, but keeps the
low further south and east of the area. The 12/1 12z GEFS and EPS
show a wide range of solutions with several indicating low tracks
like the operational runs, but also some that cut further west of
the region, similar to the system on Monday. There are also weaker
solutions, or those that pass further south and east.
With all of this in mind, have increased PoPs to high chance for
Saturday into Saturday night. The system if it occurs looks to move
out at some point on Sunday. While most precipitation that would
occur even in the stronger solutions would be rain, uncertainty
exists in any wrap around and potential for wintry precip across the
interior. It is too early for specific details on precip amounts,
winds, and any coastal impacts. The hope is that the models will
show more consistency within the next 24 to 36 hours, which will
increase forecaster confidence and give us a better idea of any
impacts.
Followed closely to model consensus guidance for early next week. A
large upper trough looks to continue over the eastern Seaboard. If
the trough axis is just offshore as currently indicated, then
conditions would be mainly dry and temperatures below normal.
.MARINE...
Brisk SW winds should continue on all waters today, though it
is possible there could be a brief lull for a few hours on the
more protected waters of the harbor/bay/wrn Sound. Winds shift
to the W-NW this afternoon/night and gradually diminish, with
SCA conditions limited to the ocean and the ern Sound/bays by
late tonight.
High pressure then builds over the Middle Atlantic on Thursday
and then offshore Thursday night into Friday. Winds on the ocean
should remain below 25 kt. Seas east of Moriches Inlet could
remain around 5 ft through Thursday night and then on all of the
ocean Friday into Friday night. Uncertainty in conditions over
the waters this weekend is quite high as a deepening low
pressure could move over or near the waters. The possibility
exists for strong winds and higher seas, but the magnitude,
timing, and duration is quite uncertain. Details should become a
bit clearer in the next 24 to 36 hours.
Good Day on This Wednesday December 2, 2020
High pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic region later today
into Thursday. A cold front will approach Friday into Friday
night. A period of unsettled weather is possible for the
upcoming weekend as low pressure may track near the Tri-State
area. The system may slowly move away late weekend into early
next week.
High pressure builds to our south tonight through Thursday. As a
result, expect dry conditions with lighter winds. Temperatures
tonight will be from the 20s inland/Long Island Pine Barrens to
the lower/mid 30s elsewhere. High temperatures on Thursday will
be in the upper 40s to lower 50s.
Forecast confidence in the long term remains below average,
specifically for the upcoming weekend. The 12/1 12z deterministic
models have come into somewhat better agreement with the next
potential storm system, although there are still a wide variety of
solutions being depicted within the ensembles. Run-to-run
continuity is also low with significant changes in just one cycle.
The chance of a storm system has increased a bit, but specific
details on impacts and sensible weather remain low.
No major concerns with conditions Thursday night into Friday.
High pressure shifts off the Eastern Seaboard Thursday night
into Friday. Mainly dry conditions are forecast during this
period with day time temperatures close to seasonable levels.
Will have to watch the timing of a cold front on Friday as it
nears the region. Have a slight chance as there could be some
light rain late Friday into Friday evening.
Attention then shifts to a volatile synoptic pattern east of the
Great Plains Friday night into the weekend. There is another deep
trough within the mean upper trough that is currently digging across
the Rockies. This energy and trough is progged to cut-off from the
main flow on Wednesday and then slowly move E-NE into Friday. The
guidance is in good agreement on this scenario with the spread
occurring with how the energy interacts a large upper low over
southeast Canada by Friday night. The 12/1 12z ECMWF phases the
energy into the northern stream, creating a rapidly deepening low
pressure tracking across the region on Saturday. It should be noted
that the 12/1 00z ECMWF kept the energy separated, with just a
frontal passage Friday night. The 12/1 12z GFS and CMC keep the main
energy separate enough from the northern stream, but there is some
interaction between the two that allows low pressure to deepen as it
moves over the Middle Atlantic and then the northeast Saturday into
Sunday. The 12/1 12z ICON also shows some interaction, but keeps the
low further south and east of the area. The 12/1 12z GEFS and EPS
show a wide range of solutions with several indicating low tracks
like the operational runs, but also some that cut further west of
the region, similar to the system on Monday. There are also weaker
solutions, or those that pass further south and east.
With all of this in mind, have increased PoPs to high chance for
Saturday into Saturday night. The system if it occurs looks to move
out at some point on Sunday. While most precipitation that would
occur even in the stronger solutions would be rain, uncertainty
exists in any wrap around and potential for wintry precip across the
interior. It is too early for specific details on precip amounts,
winds, and any coastal impacts. The hope is that the models will
show more consistency within the next 24 to 36 hours, which will
increase forecaster confidence and give us a better idea of any
impacts.
Followed closely to model consensus guidance for early next week. A
large upper trough looks to continue over the eastern Seaboard. If
the trough axis is just offshore as currently indicated, then
conditions would be mainly dry and temperatures below normal.
.MARINE...
Brisk SW winds should continue on all waters today, though it
is possible there could be a brief lull for a few hours on the
more protected waters of the harbor/bay/wrn Sound. Winds shift
to the W-NW this afternoon/night and gradually diminish, with
SCA conditions limited to the ocean and the ern Sound/bays by
late tonight.
High pressure then builds over the Middle Atlantic on Thursday
and then offshore Thursday night into Friday. Winds on the ocean
should remain below 25 kt. Seas east of Moriches Inlet could
remain around 5 ft through Thursday night and then on all of the
ocean Friday into Friday night. Uncertainty in conditions over
the waters this weekend is quite high as a deepening low
pressure could move over or near the waters. The possibility
exists for strong winds and higher seas, but the magnitude,
timing, and duration is quite uncertain. Details should become a
bit clearer in the next 24 to 36 hours.
