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Weather with Bill Evans

Good Day On This Wednesday August 17, 2022 Weak low pressure well offshore will pass through the Atlantic waters east of coastal New England today. Weak high pressure returns Thursday and remains over the region into Friday, pushing off the New England coast on Saturday. Meanwhile, a frontal boundary slowly moves northward into the weekend with a series of low pressure centers riding along it. Center of midlevel low remains in the vicinity of Coastal New England into daybreak. Weak surface low pressure far offshore moves northward but stays east of the 70W longitude. Mid and high level clouds moving north and west from the low will overspread the region. Light rain for Southeast Connecticut and Twin Forks of Long Island into early this morning where clouds will be relatively lower and clouds will be thicker. Model soundings indicate a deeper moisture vertical profile for more eastern locations versus farther west. Midlevel low retrogrades more west today, making its way into Central New England. The surface low moves farther northward, eventually making its way into the Gulf of Maine. Chances of rain showers will remain, mainly across northern sections of the region which will be closer to the low. Temperatures staying in the mid to upper 70s for highs with the northerly flow and abundant clouds. Midlevel low eventually moves northward from Gulf of Maine tonight and moving into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday into Thursday night. The midlevel low becomes an open wave and will no longer be closed off. This low accelerates northeast Friday and moves near Newfoundland. At the surface, low moves into Maine Wednesday night into Thursday and then moves farther northeastward into the Canadian Maritimes Thursday night through Friday. Meanwhile, across the local region, weak high pressure builds in. Shower chances diminish tonight from south to north. Dry conditions expected Thursday through Friday. Temperatures rebound closer to normal levels Thursday and then above normal for Friday as the airmass moderates with more SW flow. High pressure remains over the area Friday night pushing off the New England Coast on Saturday, while weak upper level ridging occurs out ahead of another upper level low over the upper mid-West Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. This will mean dry and seasonably warm temperatures for the long term period, with highs generally in the middle 80s to around 90 (with the warmest readings across the typically warmer spots of northeast New Jersey). With a persistent south to southeasterly flow, humidity levels will also slowly rise during the time frame as dew points climb into the 60s region-wide by Sunday. A frontal boundary over the Southeast US slowly moves northward late in the weekend and into next week. By Sunday afternoon, just a slight chance for showers is expected. However, better chances for precipitation come Monday through Wednesday as the boundary continues its trek toward the area. PWATs look to increase to 1.5 to 2.0 inches for the beginning of next week. A series of low pressure centers developing and riding this frontal boundary could point to some flooding concerns. However, a point of uncertainty will be the exact placement of the frontal boundary and the lows that form along it. Therefore, flooding concerns are very low at this time. SCA remains on the ocean through today due to residual higher seas. Non-ocean zones are below SCA today. Sub-SCA conditions expected tonight through Friday for all waters. Winds and waves are expected to remain below SCA conditions this weekend and into early next week. Areas of severe drought dot the local area, while most locations are designated as abnormally dry conditions or moderate drought. Most climate locations have not received an inch of rainfall this month. KBDI levels, which are indicative of the subterranean depth of dryness, have worsening with time. At present KBDI levels, fire spread is enhanced, even without much wind. A relatively longer and steady rainfall is needed to alleviate these conditions. The rain today will likely not be sufficient enough to wet the grounds. However, the other factors for fire spread today will be less with wind gusts less than 20 mph and minimum RH staying between 40 and 60 percent. There is a very low chance for hydrologic impacts for the beginning of next week as a frontal boundary moves toward the area with a series of low pressure centers riding along the boundary. For high tidal cycles through tonight, water levels are expected to remain below minor coastal flood benchmarks. For today, the residual easterly swell and higher ocean seas of 5-6 ft will lead to a high risk for rip current development. A Rip Current Risk Statement has been issued for Wednesday. There is a moderate risk for rip current development on Thursday as easterly swells continues to diminish.
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