Weather with Bill Evans
Good Day On This Tuesday Jan. 25, 2022
A cold front moves through the region today, followed by high
pressure building in through Wednesday and moving offshore on
Thursday. A cold front will move across on Friday. A low pressure
system will track off the coast Friday night through Saturday night.
High pressure will build toward the area for Sunday and Monday.
A surface cold front moves through this afternoon with
shallow moisture in place, so not expecting any precip with its
passage. Cold air behind the front lags enough for us to have high
temperatures in the upper 30s to lower 40s for most spots.
Stronger cold air advection sets in tonight with breezy conditions
on a NW flow. High pressure building in will keep us dry, but low
temperatures will be around 20 in the city, teens for most other
locations with some single digits well inland. The cold air combined
wind will make it feel like the single digits late at night in most
areas.
A weak longwave trough axis shifts through on Wednesday, followed by
ridging at night into Thursday. At the surface, high pressure builds
in through Thursday morning before shifting offshore in the
afternoon. Dry weather through this period with below normal
temperatures. Highs generally in the 20s both days. Lows for
Wednesday night fall into the teens for the NYC metropolitan area,
with single digits in most suburbs - even below zero well NW. Winds
will will be light Wednesday night, so although this will allow for
radiational cooling, wind chills won`t require any headlines.
For Thursday night, a cold front approaches from the NW along with
some lift from a shortwave and approaching jet streak. Low chances
of snow showers moving in late at night NW of the city.
A longwave trough will dominate Friday into the weekend as
additional shortwave energy moves through the northern flow with
a high amplitude trough moving toward the east coast. This will
develop low pressure off the southeastern coast on Friday and
this system has the potential to rapidly develop into a
significant coastal low that has the potential to impact the
area Friday night into Saturday night. While overall guidance
has begun to come into better agreement with the storm there
remain differences with the track and strength of the low. With
many uncertainties and forecast models continue to shifts its
track from run to run, have opted to make very little change in
the extended at this time. Generally looking at chance POPS from
NYC north and west, and likely or higher POPs east of there.
Overall, expecting what could be a high impact event however
confidence on the exact details remain low. There does remain
the possibility of some locations reach warning criteria
snowfall. Again, there are uncertainties with the track, and
coastal locations may see more mixed precipitation or even going
over to all rain for a period of time. In addition to the
precipitation threat, there is a chance of strong gusty winds
for the coastal areas.
Once the low passes to the northeast Sunday high pressure
builds to the southwest into the beginning of next week.
Temperatures through the long range forecast will remain below
seasonal normals, with the coldest days Wednesday into Thursday.
Temperatures at this time may be 15 to near 20 degrees below
normal.
.MARINE...
SW winds early this morning diminish as the morning wears on,
however are expected to increase again behind a cold front this
afternoon into evening as they veer toward NW. Gusts and seas on the
ocean will be marginally within advisory criteria, so have decided
to extend the SCA on all ocean waters through tonight. Might be able
to cancel the SCA at some point tonight before the night is through,
but on the other hand, the SCA could need to be extended into part
of Wednesday at least east of Moriches inlet. For the rest of
the waters, sub-advisory conditions prevail although
easternmost portions of LI sound could have occasional gusts up
to 25 kt through Weds. Winds and seas subside Weds night into
Thursday as a high pressure ridge shifts into the region.
Winds and seas will remain below SCA levels through Friday. A
coastal low will impact the area waters Friday night into
Saturday night with at least SCA conditions, with the potential
for gales.
The coastal storm could
bring significant precipitation to the area Friday night into
Saturday night.
River ice continues to increase due to the persistent cold. The
Wallkill River at Gardiner may be impacted by ice.
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