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Weather with Bill Evans

Good Day On This day day March 23, 2023 Frontal boundary is now well to the south, with drying low level NW flow but also abundant high and mid level clouds. An area of rain riding eastward along the front over S PA/OH supported by mid level shortwave energy as well as an upper jet streak may clip the NYC metro area and Long Island this afternoon. PoP in these areas only chance at best, as the high nosing down to the north could introduce enough low level dry air to shunt most precip to the south. High temps today should be in the lower 50s. Clouds will hang on most of tonight, with some light precip possibly entering western sections close to daybreak. A light wintry mix may be possible across some of the interior if precip arrive early enough, mainly rain mixed with sleet. Lows will range from around 40 across NYC and Long Island. Precip with approaching warm front should be mainly rain on Sat, but cannot rule out some sleet across the interior, even some freezing rain in the higher elevations of NW Orange County as temps warm aloft and low level cold air hangs on into the morning. Secondary low pressure developing along the approaching front along the NJ coast late day Sat should skirt the south shore of Long Island Sat night. Fcst soundings show some elevated instability during this time, so cannot rule out some rumbles of thunder in the metro area and along the coast during this time. Conds dry out late Sat night as this low quickly moves E of New England by daytime Sunday, with breezy conditions as the pressure gradient tightens up but also milder due to sunshine, deep mixing, and downslope NW flow. Highs on Sat with clouds and precip should only be in the 40s, with lows Sat night from the mid 30s inland to lower 40s for NYC metro and Long Island. Highs on Sunday should reach the lower 60s in NE NJ and possibly NYC, with mid/upper 50s most elsewhere and lower 50s for interior S CT and across the forks of Long Island. A near zonal flow sets up Sunday night and remains into early next week. A more amplified shortwave is then forecast to move through the flow for the midweek period. Sunday night into early Monday high pressure passes to the north. A weak low passes to the south Monday into Monday night and will bring light precipitation to the region. mainly rain, with a period of light snow inland late Monday night as the low moves to the east. High pressure briefly returns Tuesday, however, with the near zonal flow another system will be quickly approaching. There is some uncertainty with the track of this low, and may be displaced farther to the south, depending on how much the upper shortwave amplifies. Once again the precipitation will be mainly rain, with a chance of some light snow well inland as the low departs late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures will be near seasonal levels through the extended period. SCA remains in effect for the ern ocean waters where seas were still as high as 5 ft. Quiet cond expected through this evening, then increasing E flow should lead to a return of SCA cond on the ocean late tonight, then on all waters daytime Sat. A few gale force gusts may be possible on the ocean waters Sat afternoon/evening as the pressure gradient tightens between departing high pressure and an approaching warm front, and as low pressure develops on the front and moves across Sat evening. There could be a lull in conds on the waters Sat night, then a brisk NW flow should maintain SCA cond on all waters late Sat night into daytime Sunday. Ongoing SCA conditions will be possible across the ocean waters east of Moriches Inlet early Sunday night with high pressure building to the west behind departing low pressure. Conditions then remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters through Tuesday. A low passing to the south Tuesday night into Wednesday may bring SCA gusts to the ocean waters, and possibly marginal seas across the outer waters. E-SE flow should lead to increasing surge Saturday, with minor coastal flooding possible for the Saturday night high tide cycle. This will be mainly across the South Shore Bays of Long Island and Western Long Island Sound shorelines. Lowering astronomical tides may mitigate this potential somewhat as Saturday will be 4 days since the new moon.
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