Weather with Bill Evans
Good Day On This day day March 23, 2023
Frontal boundary is now well to the south, with drying low level
NW flow but also abundant high and mid level clouds. An area of
rain riding eastward along the front over S PA/OH supported by
mid level shortwave energy as well as an upper jet streak may
clip the NYC metro area and Long Island this afternoon. PoP in
these areas only chance at best, as the high nosing down to the
north could introduce enough low level dry air to shunt most
precip to the south. High temps today should be in the lower
50s.
Clouds will hang on most of tonight, with some light precip
possibly entering western sections close to daybreak. A light
wintry mix may be possible across some of the interior if
precip arrive early enough, mainly rain mixed with sleet. Lows
will range from around 40 across NYC and Long Island.
Precip with approaching warm front should be mainly rain on Sat,
but cannot rule out some sleet across the interior, even some
freezing rain in the higher elevations of NW Orange County as
temps warm aloft and low level cold air hangs on into the
morning.
Secondary low pressure developing along the approaching front
along the NJ coast late day Sat should skirt the south shore of
Long Island Sat night. Fcst soundings show some elevated
instability during this time, so cannot rule out some rumbles
of thunder in the metro area and along the coast during this
time. Conds dry out late Sat night as this low quickly moves E
of New England by daytime Sunday, with breezy conditions as the
pressure gradient tightens up but also milder due to sunshine,
deep mixing, and downslope NW flow.
Highs on Sat with clouds and precip should only be in the 40s,
with lows Sat night from the mid 30s inland to lower 40s for NYC
metro and Long Island. Highs on Sunday should reach the lower
60s in NE NJ and possibly NYC, with mid/upper 50s most
elsewhere and lower 50s for interior S CT and across the forks
of Long Island.
A near zonal flow sets up Sunday night and remains into early
next week. A more amplified shortwave is then forecast to move
through the flow for the midweek period. Sunday night into early
Monday high pressure passes to the north. A weak low passes to
the south Monday into Monday night and will bring light
precipitation to the region. mainly rain, with a period of light
snow inland late Monday night as the low moves to the east.
High pressure briefly returns Tuesday, however, with the near
zonal flow another system will be quickly approaching. There is
some uncertainty with the track of this low, and may be
displaced farther to the south, depending on how much the upper
shortwave amplifies. Once again the precipitation will be mainly
rain, with a chance of some light snow well inland as the low
departs late Tuesday night into Wednesday. Temperatures will be
near seasonal levels through the extended period.
SCA remains in effect for the ern ocean waters where seas were
still as high as 5 ft. Quiet cond expected through this evening,
then increasing E flow should lead to a return of SCA cond on
the ocean late tonight, then on all waters daytime Sat. A few
gale force gusts may be possible on the ocean waters Sat
afternoon/evening as the pressure gradient tightens between
departing high pressure and an approaching warm front, and as
low pressure develops on the front and moves across Sat evening.
There could be a lull in conds on the waters Sat night, then a
brisk NW flow should maintain SCA cond on all waters late Sat
night into daytime Sunday.
Ongoing SCA conditions will be possible across the ocean waters
east of Moriches Inlet early Sunday night with high pressure
building to the west behind departing low pressure. Conditions
then remain below advisory levels across the forecast waters
through Tuesday. A low passing to the south Tuesday night into
Wednesday may bring SCA gusts to the ocean waters, and possibly
marginal seas across the outer waters.
E-SE flow should lead to increasing surge Saturday, with minor
coastal flooding possible for the Saturday night high tide
cycle. This will be mainly across the South Shore Bays of Long
Island and Western Long Island Sound shorelines. Lowering
astronomical tides may mitigate this potential somewhat as
Saturday will be 4 days since the new moon.
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