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Weather with Bill Evans

Good Day On This Thursday March 4, 2021 The region will remain between strong low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure situated over southern Canada and the Upper Midwest through the start of the weekend. The high will build over the region Sunday and remain in control Monday and Tuesday, and then shift to the south and east into the middle of next week. The region will be under deep NW flow due to strong low pressure stalled across far eastern Canada. This will result in an enhanced pressure gradient over the area. With cold air advection increasing over the region today expect gusty NW winds to develop. This will be noticeable for the afternoon and evening hours. With only a narrow layer of higher RH around 4 to 5 kft for today, expect a good deal of sunshine overall. 850 mb temps towards days end get to -10 to -12 C. Therefore temperatures for today should average a few degrees below average due to the strong CAA despite sunshine. With vertically stacked low pressure to our north and northeast our area will remain in deep layered NW cyclonic flow. Lobes of energy will rotate around the low. A mid level disturbance will pivot through, or just NE of the area early tonight. This should only lead to a few hours of cloudiness, otherwise it remains dry as the lower levels will be moisture starved. The winds will stay up tonight on a NW flow. Due to continued CAA temperatures will average below normal tonight by about 10 degrees or so. Temperatures should be fairly uniform, with the winds staying up precluding radiational effects. Single digit and lower teen wind chills are on tap for early Friday morning. For Friday the stretch of dry weather will continue with the NW flow also going nowhere. Min RH values are expected to be at or below 30 percent across the majority of the area, so subsequent shifts may need to evaluate for any fire wx related statements. The main story is the chilly, blustery and dry weather that will continue to close out the week. A deep and anomalous upper low will remain nearly stationary over the Canadian maritimes Friday night into much of the weekend. This upper low carves out a mean trough over the eastern seaboard and western Atlantic. Ensemble means all generally agree that the upper low begins to weaken on Sunday before it lifts out into the north Atlantic into Monday. The position of the upper low will hold upper ridging across the Rockies/Great Plains and up into Central Canada. The ridging only slowly shifts eastward on Sunday as the upper low weakens. The aforementioned pattern supports dry and unseasonably cold conditions Friday night through the weekend. The Tri-State area will be sandwiched between the low pressure over the Canadian Maritimes and high pressure to our west. A deep layered NW flow will persist during this time ushering cold and dry air into the region. High temperatures will generally be in the lower and mid 30s for most locations, with the NYC metro slightly higher in the mid and upper 30s, close to 10 degrees below normal. Nighttime temperatures will be in the upper teens and lower 20s inland, to the lower and mid 20s most elsewhere. The strongest pressure gradient is currently progged on Friday night, with gusts up to 30 mph possible, making it feel like it is in the upper single digits and teens. While it will remain brisk on Saturday, the pressure gradient is weaker and winds may gust to around 20 mph. The surface high builds closer on Sunday, but the core of the high is likely to not move overhead until Sunday night. The trough carved out by the deep low to our northeast finally shifts offshore late Sunday into Sunday night. Heights aloft will rise significantly Sunday night into early next week. An initial ridge axis shifts through on Monday, followed by a warm front passage on Tuesday, with high pressure settling to our south. The overall pattern evolution supports a significant warming trend next week, with temperatures possibly approaching 60 degrees away from the immediate coastline. Not ready to boost temperatures higher than consensus blends right now due to the time range. However, if trends continue, temperatures may need to be raised farther away from the coast. .MARINE... Small craft conditions develop into this afternoon across all the coastal waters with a strengthening pressure gradient developing. NW winds will persist through tonight and into the day on Friday, with SCA conditions continuing. There may be a few occasional gusts near 34 kts on the ocean for late this afternoon and tonight, but Gale conditions are not anticipated at this time. The pressure gradient begins to relax thereafter, with lingering SCA conds on all but the Harbor and W Sound gradually easing towards Friday evening. While wind gusts up to 20 kt are possible this weekend, conditions are expected to remain below SCA levels. Relatively tranquil conditions are forecast on Monday with high pressure settling over the waters.
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