Good Monday Morning!
High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes slides east as a second
high pressure system builds to the west near Pennsylvania. This
system then builds over the Atlantic this week. A cold frontal
passage is expected late Friday into Saturday.
Clouds may linger over central Long Island while the mid levels
remain quite dry through the evening. The upper level ridge over the
Canadian Maritimes shifts east overnight. As this happens a broad
surface low pressure system off the Atlantic coast drift west. Some
model guidance is hinting at an increase in moisture from the system
which could initiate a isolated shower over the marine zones or the
extreme southeast portions of Long Island. More likely this moisture
manifests as stratus clouds around sunrise Monday morning.
Temperatures will remain mild tonight in the low 50s overnight.
There is a high rip current risk this eve.
An upper level ridge centered over the Mid Atlantic amplifies
Monday in response to a diving longwave trough above the western
CONUS. The airmass from this ridge keeps moisture at the mid
levels low and the subsidence promotes a stable environment. The
1000-500mb RH values remain below 50% through the short term.
Interesting enough the 1000- 850 mb RH values stay between
90-80%. Together this translates to fair weather clouds in the
afternoon and near zero rain chances during the day. High
temperatures are expected to reach the upper 60s and low 70s.
Overnight a short wave trough rides the northern edge of the
overhead ridge through Quebec. A weak trailing cold front extending
through central New York could bring some isolated showers for the
Lower Hudson Valley Monday night into Tuesday morning though this is
a low probability event due to the dry air already in place. However
fog or low stratus may be possible over the forecast area as low
level moisture should remain elevated even into the overnight hours.
A limiting factor may be the ambient temperatures which could remain
in the mid the upper 50s overnight. This could mitigate the fog near
the city and other areas where higher temperatures persist.
There is a moderate rip current risk on Mon.
A thermal ridge builds into the nern CONUS, producing a warm temps
this week. Return flow around an offshore high however will be a
limiting factor. Temps aloft would yield upper 80s at times, but the
marine influence will not allow for this potential to be realized.
Humidity will increase, and areas fog and stratus development each
night into the mrng will remain a challenge. It is possible some
coastal areas get locked in, which would severely limit temps. There
could also be some spotty drizzle, but it is too uncertain to place
in the fcst at this time. It would not be surprising to see some
type of dense fog advy needed for portions of the area at times this
week. Timing of the next cold front is Fri ngt into Sat per the
ECMWF and GFS. Will start chances for tstms Thu ngt with a surge of
theta-e, then the upr trof looks to get close enough to initiate
some shwrs and tstms on Fri. The front itself arrives Fri ngt into
Sat. A round of severe is possible with this sys, but will depend on
the timing of everything. Right now it is too far out to tell. The
models bring the front offshore Sat mrng. Pops were limited to high
chance as this is still several days away and timing can change.
Went close to the MEX for highs and NBM for lows.
There is a moderate rip current risk on Tue.
......MARINE...Boating.....Surfing.....
Northeast winds lighten tonight to 10-15 kts, then slowly turn
toward the E. Seas subside, and should fall below 5 ft by Monday
afternoon. As such, extending the SCA through noon Monday to
account for those lingering rough seas.
Winds and seas will be blw sca lvls Tue-Thu, however there could be
some hazards due to fog. A sca may be needed on the ocean Thu ngt
thru Sat as a frontal sys reaches the area.
Good Monday Morning!
High pressure over the Canadian Maritimes slides east as a second
high pressure system builds to the west near Pennsylvania. This
system then builds over the Atlantic this week. A cold frontal
passage is expected late Friday into Saturday.
Clouds may linger over central Long Island while the mid levels
remain quite dry through the evening. The upper level ridge over the
Canadian Maritimes shifts east overnight. As this happens a broad
surface low pressure system off the Atlantic coast drift west. Some
model guidance is hinting at an increase in moisture from the system
which could initiate a isolated shower over the marine zones or the
extreme southeast portions of Long Island. More likely this moisture
manifests as stratus clouds around sunrise Monday morning.
Temperatures will remain mild tonight in the low 50s overnight.
There is a high rip current risk this eve.
An upper level ridge centered over the Mid Atlantic amplifies
Monday in response to a diving longwave trough above the western
CONUS. The airmass from this ridge keeps moisture at the mid
levels low and the subsidence promotes a stable environment. The
1000-500mb RH values remain below 50% through the short term.
Interesting enough the 1000- 850 mb RH values stay between
90-80%. Together this translates to fair weather clouds in the
afternoon and near zero rain chances during the day. High
temperatures are expected to reach the upper 60s and low 70s.
Overnight a short wave trough rides the northern edge of the
overhead ridge through Quebec. A weak trailing cold front extending
through central New York could bring some isolated showers for the
Lower Hudson Valley Monday night into Tuesday morning though this is
a low probability event due to the dry air already in place. However
fog or low stratus may be possible over the forecast area as low
level moisture should remain elevated even into the overnight hours.
A limiting factor may be the ambient temperatures which could remain
in the mid the upper 50s overnight. This could mitigate the fog near
the city and other areas where higher temperatures persist.
There is a moderate rip current risk on Mon.
A thermal ridge builds into the nern CONUS, producing a warm temps
this week. Return flow around an offshore high however will be a
limiting factor. Temps aloft would yield upper 80s at times, but the
marine influence will not allow for this potential to be realized.
Humidity will increase, and areas fog and stratus development each
night into the mrng will remain a challenge. It is possible some
coastal areas get locked in, which would severely limit temps. There
could also be some spotty drizzle, but it is too uncertain to place
in the fcst at this time. It would not be surprising to see some
type of dense fog advy needed for portions of the area at times this
week. Timing of the next cold front is Fri ngt into Sat per the
ECMWF and GFS. Will start chances for tstms Thu ngt with a surge of
theta-e, then the upr trof looks to get close enough to initiate
some shwrs and tstms on Fri. The front itself arrives Fri ngt into
Sat. A round of severe is possible with this sys, but will depend on
the timing of everything. Right now it is too far out to tell. The
models bring the front offshore Sat mrng. Pops were limited to high
chance as this is still several days away and timing can change.
Went close to the MEX for highs and NBM for lows.
There is a moderate rip current risk on Tue.
......MARINE...Boating.....Surfing.....
Northeast winds lighten tonight to 10-15 kts, then slowly turn
toward the E. Seas subside, and should fall below 5 ft by Monday
afternoon. As such, extending the SCA through noon Monday to
account for those lingering rough seas.
Winds and seas will be blw sca lvls Tue-Thu, however there could be
some hazards due to fog. A sca may be needed on the ocean Thu ngt
thru Sat as a frontal sys reaches the area.
