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Weather with Bill Evans

The main concern in the near term today will be the northerly wind gusts up to 50 mph with sustained 20-30 mph during the afternoon hours. A wind advisory is in effect for the entire East End and CT until 10pm this evening. As the deepening low pressure system off the coast of Massachusetts continues its northeast path, the increasing pressure gradient over the forecast area will results in high winds starting around mid morning. Soundings show a boundary layer up to 800 mb with winds around 40-45kts. These gusty winds have the potential to mix down to the surface owing to relatively clear skies and diurnal heating. Max temperatures will be about 10 degrees above daily normals reaching around 50 degrees by the afternoon. A few isolated rain showers are not out of the questions behind the front late in the afternoon towards the early evening hour. Dry cold air with dew points in the single digits rapidly pushes south into the forecast area by the late evening. Temperatures overnight are expected to drop into the low 20s. This cold air regime continues into the day. A +1040mb over the Great Lakes high builds into the northern portion of New York state throughout Friday. Brisk north wind though much lighter than the previous day will aid in keeping ambient temperatures right around freezing. One important note is that the wind chill Friday could be in the teens for most of the East End, Lower and Southern Connecticut. Strong high pressure builds across the region into Friday night with cold temperatures expected. Lows Friday night will be mainly in the teens in outlying areas, to around 20 degrees in towards the city. High moves offshore Saturday as a low pressure system moves towards the area from the Great Lakes. There are quite a few details to note with this pending storm system. Due to the progressive nature of the pattern along with the lack of a negative AO and NAO, the models are not indicating a decent CAD scenario. With the lack of cold air damming and with the low system tracking to the west and north, a strong southerly flow will be developing ahead of the low, and while cold air will initially be in place, this is expected to change to rain in most, if not the entire area. The main takeaway here with the polar jet going right over the region by Saturday evening and the 500 mb vorticity maximum going slightly north of the region, the chance of an all snow scenario for much of the area is unlikely. The biggest question is how quick can the deeper moisture arrive and mix with the colder air before it can exit, especially in the lower levels. With the onset of precipitation and for the first few hours it precipitates temperatures should hold nearly steady. Due to the fact that the departing high pressure system is rather strong and there will be cold air in place initially, precipitation is expected to begin as all snow Saturday late morning into the early afternoon. The timing of the main mandatory level features suggest precip / snow start time on Saturday to be centered at or just before 18z as the 500 mb ridge passage takes place just before then, and the leading edge of the 700 mb moisture starts to move over the region. It will develop from west to east and with at least a few hours of snow, then transitioning quickly to rain/snow, especially closer to the coast, then all rain, from south to north by late Saturday afternoon and through the evening. Then by late afternoon and evening temperatures should climb rather quickly, especially for southern and eastern portions of the area. The thinking is that highs on Saturday will be low to mid 30s inland and upper 30s to around 40 elsewhere. This system will be fast moving, and precipitation will be ending overnight Saturday likely by10pm as the mid levels dry out quickly. Only a few lingering flurries are expected across the higher inland terrain as the low departs Sunday. The main story then becomes the wind, as once again there will be the potential for gusty winds into the day on Sunday as the departing low deepens over the NW Atlantic. The winds will then gradually come down into Monday with building high pressure.
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