Good Day and Happy Sunday!
Here's the latest on Isaias:
Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020
The burst of deep convection that developed to the northeast of the
center last evening has not resulted in any significant improvement
in the structure of Isaias according to recent reconnaissance
aircraft data and radar imagery. The tropical cyclone is still
being adversely affected by about 25 kt of 850-200 mb vertical wind
shear. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has
provided several center fixes overnight has found peak 850-mb
flight-level winds of 67 kt, and peak believable SFMR winds of 51
kt. These data, along with an earlier ASCAT overpass, indicate
that Isaias' intensity is 55 kt. In addition, both the aircraft
and ASCAT data suggest that the wind field over the western portion
of the circulation is somewhat smaller than previous estimated.
Since Isaias has not shown any signs of re-organizing overnight, it
appears that the window of opportunity for it to re-strengthen is
closing. The SHIPS guidance and global model fields do not show
the shear abating during the next 24-36 hours while Isaias moves
near the Florida coast. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast
shows little change in strength during this time. Later in the
period, gradual weakening should occur as the storm moves northward
along the east coast of the United States. The NHC intensity
forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus
model and the latest multi-model intensity consensus.
Recent aircraft fixes and radar data show that Isaias is moving
northwestward or 325/8 kt. A slow northwestward to
north-northwestward motion around the western periphery of a
deep-layer ridge centered near Bermuda should take the center of
Isaias very near the east coast of Florida through Monday. After
that, the tropical cyclone should begin to accelerate
north-northeastward to northeastward as a trough slides eastward
into the eastern United States. The dynamical models are tightly
clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies between the typically
reliable GFS and ECMWF models.
The reduction in the initial and predicted intensity of Isaias has
necessitated changes in warnings along the east coast of Florida.
The Hurricane Warning along the east-central coast of Florida has
been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.
Good Day and Happy Sunday!
Here's the latest on Isaias:
Tropical Storm Isaias Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092020
500 AM EDT Sun Aug 02 2020
The burst of deep convection that developed to the northeast of the
center last evening has not resulted in any significant improvement
in the structure of Isaias according to recent reconnaissance
aircraft data and radar imagery. The tropical cyclone is still
being adversely affected by about 25 kt of 850-200 mb vertical wind
shear. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft that has
provided several center fixes overnight has found peak 850-mb
flight-level winds of 67 kt, and peak believable SFMR winds of 51
kt. These data, along with an earlier ASCAT overpass, indicate
that Isaias' intensity is 55 kt. In addition, both the aircraft
and ASCAT data suggest that the wind field over the western portion
of the circulation is somewhat smaller than previous estimated.
Since Isaias has not shown any signs of re-organizing overnight, it
appears that the window of opportunity for it to re-strengthen is
closing. The SHIPS guidance and global model fields do not show
the shear abating during the next 24-36 hours while Isaias moves
near the Florida coast. As a result, the new NHC intensity forecast
shows little change in strength during this time. Later in the
period, gradual weakening should occur as the storm moves northward
along the east coast of the United States. The NHC intensity
forecast is in good agreement with the HFIP corrected consensus
model and the latest multi-model intensity consensus.
Recent aircraft fixes and radar data show that Isaias is moving
northwestward or 325/8 kt. A slow northwestward to
north-northwestward motion around the western periphery of a
deep-layer ridge centered near Bermuda should take the center of
Isaias very near the east coast of Florida through Monday. After
that, the tropical cyclone should begin to accelerate
north-northeastward to northeastward as a trough slides eastward
into the eastern United States. The dynamical models are tightly
clustered, and the NHC track forecast lies between the typically
reliable GFS and ECMWF models.
The reduction in the initial and predicted intensity of Isaias has
necessitated changes in warnings along the east coast of Florida.
The Hurricane Warning along the east-central coast of Florida has
been replaced with a Tropical Storm Warning.
