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Weather with Bill Evans

Good Day On This Friday June 11, 2021 Low pressure forms and passes well to the south today and Saturday. A weak front may produce a few light showers on Saturday. A frontal system impacts the area late Sunday into Monday, followed by an upper level system which will impact the area through the middle of the week. Relatively benign conditions are forecast today with a low pressure system developing well to the south along a stalled frontal boundary. A weak high pressure ridge will prevent much of the showers from moving into our area but a few stray showers could approach the southwestern portions of the CWA, mainly NYC and NE NJ. Otherwise, much of the area is dry today with clouds increasing through the day. highs will be in the low to middle 70s for most. A front to our north will begin to approach the area Saturday night but once again much of the area will remain dry, especially before midnight. There is a slight chance of showers for northern portions of the CWA, mainly CT and the Lower Hudson Valley during the late night and into the early morning on Saturday. Lows will be in the middle 50s to low 60s. The weak front continues to move through Saturday brining the slight chance of a passing shower for much of the area. However, much of the area should remain dry most of the day and into the night. High temperatures will be in the low to middle 70s. Lows on Saturday night will be in the middle 50s to low 60s. After collaboration with surrounding offices, have made some small changes to the extended. Recent model trends indicate a weaker and slower cold front approaching the area by Sunday night into Monday. As a result, have lowered PoPs on Sunday afternoon and increased them into early Monday morning, relative to current NBM. Have also adjusted high temperatures down a bit midweek, based on cold upper low overhead. An h5 shortwave trof passes thru the Great Lakes on Sun, bringing a warm front/cold front combo thru late Sun into Mon. Chances for rain better with this, and some elevated embedded tstms possible but no SBCAPE modeled attm. Pops 60-70 for this. A big h5 low is then progged to drop out of Canada and slowly spin across the Northeast Tue-Thu. There are some model differences with the GFS further s than the ECMWF with the closed low, but the idea of cyclonic flow aloft slowly transitioning thru the cwa is reasonable. Chances for shwrs and tstms thru the period as a result. .MARINE... Winds and waves will remain mostly below SCA criteria through Friday. Wind gusts may occasionally reach 20 to 25 knots and seas could briefly touch 5 ft on the ocean, but not widespread enough for a SCA. SCA criteria may be approached on Sunday evening into early Monday morning on the ocean waters, as low pressure and a cold front approach the area. Wind gusts to 25kts on the ocean waters are possible. Winds and seas look to remain below SCA for the reminder of the period.
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