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Weather with Bill Evans

Good Day on This Tuesday October 20, 2020 An upper level disturbance will move across today. Otherwise, offshore high pressure will prevent a weak cold front from moving into the area until late Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The front will stall nearby or just south of the area on Thursday as high pressure passes to the north Thursday into Friday. Another cold front will approach on Saturday, and pass through on Sunday. Area of showers and isolated tstms approaching from the south should impact mainly Long Island and southern CT this morning per latest guidance. Hi-res guidance indicated additional bands of showers developing and moving across during the morning and early afternoon, with a stripe of rainfall of 1/4 to 1/2 inch across central/eastern Long Island and SE CT. Otherwise, clouds and onshore flow will prevail today. Despite the cloud cover and precip, temps should reach the lower 70s in the NYC metro and the upper 60s elsewhere. For tonight and early Wed morning, low level moisture will remain locked in place as a moist onshore flow continues. Patchy light rain/drizzle/fog should spread in from the east mainly after midnight. Low temps will range from the lower 60s in/just outside NYC, to the mid/upper 50s elsewhere. cloud cover will begin to thin out in the afternoon, with a mild day expected as high temps reach the lower and mid 70s. Models in fairly good agreement with the region remaining under the influence of western Atlantic ridging later this week, as longwave troughing dominates the north Central portions of the country. The ridging weakens this weekend as an energetic shortwave slides through southern Ontario and Quebec Friday into Saturday allowing the eastern flank of the upper trough to push overhead with a fast cross-CONUS SW flow aloft. This upper flow will also help deflect Hurricane Epsilon NE away from the coast heading into this weekend, eventually shearing into this flow east of the Canadian Maritimes. A weak cold front will sags through the region Wed Night/Thu AM, with Canadian high pressure gradually building into New England Thu into Fri. Low clouds and patchy drizzle may be possible mainly for coastal areas Wed night, before passage of this front. A transition in air mass from warm and moist Wed/Wed night to warm and drier Thu with offshore flow and more sunshine. Temps on Thu could be nearly 10 degrees above seasonable for this time of year. A transition to a Canadian maritime airmass on Friday, with gusty NE flow between high pressure sliding off the Canadian maritimes and Epsilon making its closest approach as it attains hurricane strength. Long period energetic swells from Epsilon will be building to the shoreline as well Thu night into Friday, lingering through the weekend. The next chance of showers looks to be late Saturday into Sunday as a stronger cold front sags into the region. This front and associated showers activity could linger near the area into early next week depending on how deeply the longwave trough amplifies across the western US and the resultant orientation of upper flow over the area. Low predictability at this time on frontal position, but general agreement that the brunt of an expansive cold pool over Canada remains locked near the Canadian/US border for the time being, with near seasonably temps in the wake of the frontal passage. .MARINE... A cold front slowly approaches the waters today and eventually stalls well to the north and west of the waters tonight with that same front lifting back north by Wednesday. Another cold front approaches Wednesday night and moves across early Thursday. Overall, the pressure gradient will remain weak through Wednesday night with a slight increase in the pressure gradient on Thursday. Conditions on all forecast waters are expected to remain below SCA thresholds through Wednesday night. SCA level seas getting up to near 5 ft are forecast for the ocean Thursday. Wavewatch shows some long period swell emanating away from Epsilon and getting into the local waters on Thursday. That is why despite winds being relatively light, wave heights from the Wavewatch are rising to near 5 ft by Thursday afternoon.
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