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Weather with Bill Evans

Good Day On This Tuesday October 4, 2022 Low pressure east of the Delmarva coast will remain in place through Wednesday morning, when it will then begin to weaken and exit to the east Wednesday night and Thursday. A cold front moves through the area on Friday. A weaker cold front/surface trough could move through the area Sunday night. High pressure will then gradually build in for the weekend into early next week. An upper level trough and embedded closed low will remain over or near the region through tonight. Its associated surface low will remain nearly stationary off the Mid-Atlantic coast. A persistent strong North to Northeasterly flow continues today then starts to gradually weaken tonight. Rain is expected to continue through the day with likely to categorical POPs expected. The highest chances of precipitation will along the coastal locations. Temperatures remain below, with highs in the 50s. Lows tonight fall into the upper 40s and 50s. The upper level trough and embedded closed low will remain over the area Wednesday, then it starts to gradually weaken and quickly moves east Wednesday night into Thursday. As this system moves east, ridging will being to build overhead Thursday. Showers will remain in the forecast on Wednesday, then pops gradually taper off Wednesday night as the low moves east. Most if not all of the shower activity should come to an end around or shortly after midnight, with dry conditions expected for Thursday. Highs on Wednesday will be in the upper 50s and lower 60s. Continued to go with temperatures a few degrees lower than the deterministic NBM due to the lingering clouds, gusty E-NE flow, and showers. The air mass moderates on Thursday with ridging aloft and high pressure at the surface. Highs in the lower to middle 70s. Friday will feature highs in the lower to middle 70s, several degrees above normal for early October, ahead of the cold front passage late in the day. Have introduced a slight chance PoP for Friday afternoon and evening with the front. Moisture is limited, but significant height falls aloft warrant a slight chance, which is currently higher than the NBM. The front should be moving offshore Friday night allowing one of the coolest air masses of the fall to settle over the area for the weekend. Breezy W-NW winds will occur both Saturday and Sunday as the core of the high likely remains to our south and west. The pressure gradient may diminish by next Monday with the high settling over the northeast. High temperatures on Saturday should range from the upper 50s inland to the lower 60s near the coast and only a few degrees higher in the lower 60s on Sunday. Temperatures may moderate closer to normal by early next week. Nighttime temperatures in the 40s are currently forecast this weekend, with some potential for upper 30s across the normal colder spots of the interior. Extended the gale warning for the ocean waters through Wednesday 04z as NE winds remain strong between slowly deepening low pressure off the Delmarva coast and high pressure to the north. Winds then diminish Tuesday night as the high to the north weakens. SCA conditions should continue on the non-ocean waters through at least the first half of Wednesday, then start to fall below SCA levels through the day. SCA wind gusts are expected to continue into Wednesday evening on the ocean, especially east of Fire Island Inlet. Ocean seas will also remain above 5 ft, but should be subsiding through Wednesday night. Some 5 ft ocean seas may linger into the early morning of Thursday, before finally falling below SCA levels. Winds and waves remain mainly below SCA criteria Thursday night through early next week. A cold frontal passage could bring marginal SCA gusts Friday night into Saturday. Total rainfall of 1-1.5 inches forecast for the NYC metro area and western Long Island. Long duration precludes any hydrologic impact, and this rain will be beneficial in mitigating drought conditions. Although guidance consensus is indicating a slight downward trend in water levels for this afternoons/evening tide, continued and strengthened NNE flow should promote Ekman transport and continued long period easterly swells. With astronomical tides leveling out, this should allow water levels to remain very close to those of today and possibly slightly higher in back bay areas. Have leaned toward the higher end of the Stevens and P-ETSS guidance in this regard, and continued with same advisory/statement structure as for today. Marginally high surf of 5-8 ft and elevated water levels will result in widespread beach flooding/erosion during the times of high tide through Tuesday, as seen during the evening high tide on webcams. Areas of dune base erosion are likely, but the threat for localized washovers is limited as swells will be more parallel to the ocean shoreline as opposed to onshore.
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