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Weather with Bill Evans

Good Day on This Wednesday December 2, 2020 High pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic region later today into Thursday. A cold front will approach Friday into Friday night. A period of unsettled weather is possible for the upcoming weekend as low pressure may track near the Tri-State area. The system may slowly move away late weekend into early next week. High pressure builds to our south tonight through Thursday. As a result, expect dry conditions with lighter winds. Temperatures tonight will be from the 20s inland/Long Island Pine Barrens to the lower/mid 30s elsewhere. High temperatures on Thursday will be in the upper 40s to lower 50s. Forecast confidence in the long term remains below average, specifically for the upcoming weekend. The 12/1 12z deterministic models have come into somewhat better agreement with the next potential storm system, although there are still a wide variety of solutions being depicted within the ensembles. Run-to-run continuity is also low with significant changes in just one cycle. The chance of a storm system has increased a bit, but specific details on impacts and sensible weather remain low. No major concerns with conditions Thursday night into Friday. High pressure shifts off the Eastern Seaboard Thursday night into Friday. Mainly dry conditions are forecast during this period with day time temperatures close to seasonable levels. Will have to watch the timing of a cold front on Friday as it nears the region. Have a slight chance as there could be some light rain late Friday into Friday evening. Attention then shifts to a volatile synoptic pattern east of the Great Plains Friday night into the weekend. There is another deep trough within the mean upper trough that is currently digging across the Rockies. This energy and trough is progged to cut-off from the main flow on Wednesday and then slowly move E-NE into Friday. The guidance is in good agreement on this scenario with the spread occurring with how the energy interacts a large upper low over southeast Canada by Friday night. The 12/1 12z ECMWF phases the energy into the northern stream, creating a rapidly deepening low pressure tracking across the region on Saturday. It should be noted that the 12/1 00z ECMWF kept the energy separated, with just a frontal passage Friday night. The 12/1 12z GFS and CMC keep the main energy separate enough from the northern stream, but there is some interaction between the two that allows low pressure to deepen as it moves over the Middle Atlantic and then the northeast Saturday into Sunday. The 12/1 12z ICON also shows some interaction, but keeps the low further south and east of the area. The 12/1 12z GEFS and EPS show a wide range of solutions with several indicating low tracks like the operational runs, but also some that cut further west of the region, similar to the system on Monday. There are also weaker solutions, or those that pass further south and east. With all of this in mind, have increased PoPs to high chance for Saturday into Saturday night. The system if it occurs looks to move out at some point on Sunday. While most precipitation that would occur even in the stronger solutions would be rain, uncertainty exists in any wrap around and potential for wintry precip across the interior. It is too early for specific details on precip amounts, winds, and any coastal impacts. The hope is that the models will show more consistency within the next 24 to 36 hours, which will increase forecaster confidence and give us a better idea of any impacts. Followed closely to model consensus guidance for early next week. A large upper trough looks to continue over the eastern Seaboard. If the trough axis is just offshore as currently indicated, then conditions would be mainly dry and temperatures below normal. .MARINE... Brisk SW winds should continue on all waters today, though it is possible there could be a brief lull for a few hours on the more protected waters of the harbor/bay/wrn Sound. Winds shift to the W-NW this afternoon/night and gradually diminish, with SCA conditions limited to the ocean and the ern Sound/bays by late tonight. High pressure then builds over the Middle Atlantic on Thursday and then offshore Thursday night into Friday. Winds on the ocean should remain below 25 kt. Seas east of Moriches Inlet could remain around 5 ft through Thursday night and then on all of the ocean Friday into Friday night. Uncertainty in conditions over the waters this weekend is quite high as a deepening low pressure could move over or near the waters. The possibility exists for strong winds and higher seas, but the magnitude, timing, and duration is quite uncertain. Details should become a bit clearer in the next 24 to 36 hours.
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