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Weather with Bill Evans

Good Day On This Friday October 15, 2021 High pressure today will give way to an approaching frontal system over the Midwest. A strong cold front will then pass through the area Saturday late afternoon into evening. High pressure builds in Sunday night and Monday and will remain in control through the middle of the week. A frontal system approaches late next week. A high amplitude upper level ridge along the eastern seaboard today will give way to a progressive longwave trough moving across the mid and upper Mississippi Valley. The latter of which well send a frontal system toward the area, but not before high pressure moves offshore later this morning. It will remain unseasonably warm as 85h temperatures approach 15C. The one limiting factor for record highs today will be a subsidence inversion that will limit the depth of the mixed layer. However, based on highs across the region on Wednesday, went a few degrees above MOS and NBM. This will put readings into the upper 70s and lowers 80s this afternoon, warmest across the NYC metro. Current forecast highs fall a few degrees below records. Some mid and high level clouds will continue to ride over top the upper ridge with partly to mostly sunny skies. It is also possible for a late day shower across Orange County in the Lower Hudson Valley due to warm advection on the backside of the ridge and marginal instability. The longwave upper trough continues to march east with high pressure offshore across he Western Atlantic. A few showers could linger overnight across the far NW interior. Southerly winds will begin to ramp up late tonight into Saturday with sustained winds of 15 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph by Saturday afternoon. The strongest winds will be along the coast. A 30-40 kt LLJ will to develop across the western half of the forecast area by daybreak, then shifts east across LI and CT on Saturday. Temperatures will remain unseasonably warm with lows about 15 to 20 degrees above normal and highs 10-15 degrees. Cold front arrives late Saturday afternoon across western portions of the Lower Hudson Valley, NYC metro by early evening, and LI and CT mainly after 7 pm. While the vertical wind profile strengthens with 40-50 kt of deep-layer shear (0-6 km) by afternoon, weak lapse rates only support CAPES of 500-750 J/KG from NYC and points north and west. The instability lessens as the front moves across LI and CT. CAMs are in very good agreement in weakening the line of convection as it approaches the coast in the early evening. Due to the strong vertical wind profile and marginal instability, an isolated strong and/or severe thunderstorm can not be ruled out. The best chance at this time would appear to be across NYC, NE NJ, and the Lower Hudson Valley. To the east, the strong southerly flow will result in a bit more stability. SPC has maintained a marginal risk across all of the forecast area. Post-frontal showers may linger for a short time behind the line, but conditions will then quickly dry out with strong CAA and gusty NW winds behind the cold front. The strongest winds will be during the daytime hours on Sunday. Highs on Sunday will return to seasonable levels in the lower to mid 60s. An isolated shower is possible NW of NYC Sunday afternoon due to cyclonic flow and steep low-level lapse rates. Any convection will be low-topped and weak. Upper level trough slowly slides east Sunday night as a cut off low settles over southeast Canada Monday night. Meanwhile, high pressure builds in at the surface. There does seem to be some vorticity maximums rounding the cut off low that make their way into the forecast area, that may provide some lift for the development of showers to our northwest. Additionally, perhaps some lake enhanced rain showers develop over eastern and central New York. The question is whether any of these showers make it to any part of our forecast area. Current thinking is that much of any precipitation will evaporate with the downslope flow. However, a slight chance of showers is possible for northern Orange County during the day Monday. Otherwise, dry conditions are expected through the middle of next week as high pressure continues to build in. The center of the high will be situated over the southeast states by Tuesday, pushing off the southeast coast Wednesday. This will allow the next frontal system to approach late next week, with any precipitation holding off until Thursday night. Temperatures will be seasonable for Monday, perhaps a couple of degrees below normal, as northwesterly flow continues across the area. As we head into the middle and latter half of next week, temperatures start to climb to above normal as upper level ridging, and therefore height rises allow for the introduction of a progressively warmer air mass. Southerly winds quickly ramp up late tonight into Saturday ahead of an approaching cold front. A SCA has been issued for all waters on Saturday with southerly gusts of 25-30 kt. A few gusts to gale force are possible, especially nearshore. SCA conditions are likely to continue on the ocean waters through Sunday, possibly into Monday, due to a strong NW flow. Elsewhere, conditions will be more marginal and confidence is not as high. Winds and waves diminish heading into Tuesday as high pressure builds in from the west.
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