The main concern in the near term today will be the northerly
wind gusts up to 50 mph with sustained 20-30 mph during the
afternoon hours. A wind advisory is in effect for the entire
East End and CT until 10pm this evening.
As the deepening low pressure system off the coast of
Massachusetts continues its northeast path, the increasing
pressure gradient over the forecast area will results in high
winds starting around mid morning. Soundings show
a boundary layer up to 800 mb with winds around 40-45kts. These
gusty winds have the potential to mix down to the surface owing
to relatively clear skies and diurnal heating. Max temperatures
will be about 10 degrees above daily normals reaching around 50
degrees by the afternoon.
A few isolated rain showers are not out of the questions behind
the front late in the afternoon towards the early evening hour.
Dry cold air with dew points in the single digits rapidly
pushes south into the forecast area by the late evening.
Temperatures overnight are expected to drop into the low 20s.
This cold air regime continues into the day. A +1040mb over the
Great Lakes high builds into the northern portion of New York
state throughout Friday. Brisk north wind though much lighter
than the previous day will aid in keeping ambient temperatures
right around freezing. One important note is that the wind chill
Friday could be in the teens for most of the East End, Lower
and Southern Connecticut.
Strong high pressure builds across the region into Friday night
with cold temperatures expected. Lows Friday night will be
mainly in the teens in outlying areas, to around 20 degrees in
towards the city.
High moves offshore Saturday as a low pressure system moves
towards the area from the Great Lakes. There are quite a few
details to note with this pending storm system. Due to the
progressive nature of the pattern along with the lack of a
negative AO and NAO, the models are not indicating a decent CAD
scenario. With the lack of cold air damming and with the low
system tracking to the west and north, a strong southerly flow
will be developing ahead of the low, and while cold air will
initially be in place, this is expected to change to rain in
most, if not the entire area. The main takeaway here with the
polar jet going right over the region by Saturday evening and
the 500 mb vorticity maximum going slightly north of the region,
the chance of an all snow scenario for much of the area is
unlikely. The biggest question is how quick can the deeper
moisture arrive and mix with the colder air before it can exit,
especially in the lower levels. With the onset of precipitation
and for the first few hours it precipitates temperatures should
hold nearly steady. Due to the fact that the departing high
pressure system is rather strong and there will be cold air in
place initially, precipitation is expected to begin as all snow
Saturday late morning into the early afternoon. The timing of
the main mandatory level features suggest precip / snow start
time on Saturday to be centered at or just before 18z as the 500
mb ridge passage takes place just before then, and the leading
edge of the 700 mb moisture starts to move over the region. It
will develop from west to east and with at least a few hours of
snow, then transitioning quickly to rain/snow, especially closer
to the coast, then all rain, from south to north by late
Saturday afternoon and through the evening. Then by late
afternoon and evening temperatures should climb rather quickly,
especially for southern and eastern portions of the area. The
thinking is that highs on Saturday will be low to mid 30s inland
and upper 30s to around 40 elsewhere.
This system will be fast moving, and precipitation will be
ending overnight Saturday likely by10pm as the mid
levels dry out quickly. Only a few lingering flurries are
expected across the higher inland terrain as the low departs
Sunday. The main story then becomes the wind, as once again
there will be the potential for gusty winds into the day on
Sunday as the departing low deepens over the NW Atlantic. The
winds will then gradually come down into Monday with building
high pressure.
The main concern in the near term today will be the northerly
wind gusts up to 50 mph with sustained 20-30 mph during the
afternoon hours. A wind advisory is in effect for the entire
East End and CT until 10pm this evening.
As the deepening low pressure system off the coast of
Massachusetts continues its northeast path, the increasing
pressure gradient over the forecast area will results in high
winds starting around mid morning. Soundings show
a boundary layer up to 800 mb with winds around 40-45kts. These
gusty winds have the potential to mix down to the surface owing
to relatively clear skies and diurnal heating. Max temperatures
will be about 10 degrees above daily normals reaching around 50
degrees by the afternoon.
A few isolated rain showers are not out of the questions behind
the front late in the afternoon towards the early evening hour.
Dry cold air with dew points in the single digits rapidly
pushes south into the forecast area by the late evening.
Temperatures overnight are expected to drop into the low 20s.
This cold air regime continues into the day. A +1040mb over the
Great Lakes high builds into the northern portion of New York
state throughout Friday. Brisk north wind though much lighter
than the previous day will aid in keeping ambient temperatures
right around freezing. One important note is that the wind chill
Friday could be in the teens for most of the East End, Lower
and Southern Connecticut.
Strong high pressure builds across the region into Friday night
with cold temperatures expected. Lows Friday night will be
mainly in the teens in outlying areas, to around 20 degrees in
towards the city.
High moves offshore Saturday as a low pressure system moves
towards the area from the Great Lakes. There are quite a few
details to note with this pending storm system. Due to the
progressive nature of the pattern along with the lack of a
negative AO and NAO, the models are not indicating a decent CAD
scenario. With the lack of cold air damming and with the low
system tracking to the west and north, a strong southerly flow
will be developing ahead of the low, and while cold air will
initially be in place, this is expected to change to rain in
most, if not the entire area. The main takeaway here with the
polar jet going right over the region by Saturday evening and
the 500 mb vorticity maximum going slightly north of the region,
the chance of an all snow scenario for much of the area is
unlikely. The biggest question is how quick can the deeper
moisture arrive and mix with the colder air before it can exit,
especially in the lower levels. With the onset of precipitation
and for the first few hours it precipitates temperatures should
hold nearly steady. Due to the fact that the departing high
pressure system is rather strong and there will be cold air in
place initially, precipitation is expected to begin as all snow
Saturday late morning into the early afternoon. The timing of
the main mandatory level features suggest precip / snow start
time on Saturday to be centered at or just before 18z as the 500
mb ridge passage takes place just before then, and the leading
edge of the 700 mb moisture starts to move over the region. It
will develop from west to east and with at least a few hours of
snow, then transitioning quickly to rain/snow, especially closer
to the coast, then all rain, from south to north by late
Saturday afternoon and through the evening. Then by late
afternoon and evening temperatures should climb rather quickly,
especially for southern and eastern portions of the area. The
thinking is that highs on Saturday will be low to mid 30s inland
and upper 30s to around 40 elsewhere.
This system will be fast moving, and precipitation will be
ending overnight Saturday likely by10pm as the mid
levels dry out quickly. Only a few lingering flurries are
expected across the higher inland terrain as the low departs
Sunday. The main story then becomes the wind, as once again
there will be the potential for gusty winds into the day on
Sunday as the departing low deepens over the NW Atlantic. The
winds will then gradually come down into Monday with building
high pressure.
